2019 corn and soybean planting has multiple weeks worth of work left to finish and yet analysts like Craig Turner of "Turner's Take" and a broker at Daniel's Trading, tells AgDay's Clinton Griffiths its already going to impact decisions next year.
"We know we're going to have some pretty long term issues with global feed demand," says Turner. "Even without a U.S. China trade war, there's still going to be the lingering effects of African Swine Fever for a couple of years and that's going to really impact the soybean market."
Turner expects given the trade dispute, South America will likely increase soybean production in 2020.
"Where does that leave the United States," says Turner. "Also how do things work out with the [trade] aid regarding prevent plant and the rules for the payouts."
Turner says depending on how favorable those payments are for farmers, it will likely impact planting decisions next season too.
"We could have 800 [million] or a billion bushels [in 2019]," says Turner. "If we look at the trends and where supply and demand is going for soybeans next year, we could see soybeans underneath 80 million acres next year."
Turner says that could force corn acreage higher, even possibly into the mid-90 million acres for 2020.
"I'm not saying that's going to happen but if you just look at the trends going forward, you would assume we're going to be tightening corn this year and probably going to be heavy beans," says Turner. "That's just another reason not to, on the margins, to plant beans and instead [plant] more corn or a little bit more wheat."