The Indian Rupee has been under historic pressure and recently reached a record low, and things are not likely to get better as tensions in Syria heat up. India is the world's largest consumer of gold and imports 80% of its oil. It is also the leading global destination for phosphate sendouts, and happenings in that segment impact phosphate pricing here in North America.
The United States is a net exporter of phosphate and retail prices have fallen moderately in the past months. India is thought to be sitting on a national stockpile of around 6 million tonnes. Last year's total P imports into India tallied 6 million tonnes, and this season's tenders are expected to reflect strong domestic stocks with a 30% decline year-over. But a burdensome subsidy program, declining Rupee and firming global gold and crude oil prices will limit Indian farmers' ability to pay.
The North American phosphate industry believes the last two crop years in the U.S. have rendered strong enough returns for growers to bank P&K. That attitude, coupled with the struggles of the world's largest phosphate buyer are expected to weigh on phosphate pricing through the first of the year.
In this week's Inputs Monitor Regional Index, DAP down $1.27 to a regional average of $583.33; MAP down $6.93 to $610.45.