Descartes Labs’ View From Space Shows Shrinking U.S. Corn Crop

September 9, 2015 05:58 AM

From an analysis of more than 1 million corn fields daily, Descartes Labs’ infrared satellite images showed U.S. production is 2.8 percent smaller than the government estimates.

Output will be 13.3 billion bushels, the Los Alamos, New Mexico-based company said. That compares with 13.34 billion estimated last month by Descartes and 13.686 billion forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Aug. 12. The average estimate of 33 analysts in a Bloomberg survey last week projected 13.484 billion bushels.

Lower yields and acreage caused by excessive rain from Missouri to Ohio in June and July are “clearly visible” on computer-generated maps from the previous 30 days, Descartes Chief Technology Officer Steven Brumby said Sept. 3 in a telephone interview. The biggest declines from 2014 were in Howard County, Indiana, and Hardin and Logan counties in Illinois.

“The crop ran out of gas and turned toward maturity more quickly, and that will lead to a poor outcome,” Brumby said. “USDA August predictions for corn yield and production are significantly overestimating conditions on the ground.”

Lower Yields


National yields will be 164.8 bushels an acre, Descartes said. That’s down from the company’s estimates of 164.9 bushels last month and 168 bushels in July, On Aug. 12, the USDA projected 168.8 bushels. The company said that harvested acreage is 80.68 million, down from the 81.1 million forecast by the government.


To make crop forecasts, Descartes studies 30 million pixels of agricultural fields a day, and its computer programs compare the results with 10 trillion pixels of satellite imagery from the past 10 years.

The company is named after the 17th century French mathematician and philosopher Rene Descartes, who discovered that the position of a point can be determined by coordinates. The firm started as a project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2007. Brumby said the labs are developing programs to forecast all major crops in the U.S. and plan to make projections for global crops. New satellite images available next year will enhance the view from space.

“We are on the cusp of more data,” which can double or triple the number of observations, Brumby said.

On Friday, the USDA will issue its second estimate of this year’s crop, based on farmer surveys from 32 states and field- based observations from 1,900 locations in 10 states.

Final output will be determined by weather as the harvest moves into the heart of the Midwest this month. Excessive rain and strong winds may damage weakened plants.

Corn prices have slumped 18 percent from this year’s high on July 13, even as some analysts reduced forecasts for output. On Tuesday, futures for December delivery rose 1.4 percent to $3.6825 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Allendale Inc. said on Sept. 2 that the USDA will reduce its forecast by 1 percent. INTL FCStone Inc. on Sept. 1 said its estimate trailed the government’s Aug. 11 projection by 1.7 percent. On Aug. 27, Planalytics Inc. said its yield forecast was 1.2 percent below the agency’s outlook.

Informa Economics Inc. on Sept. 3 boosted its forecast by 1.7 percent from its Aug. 5 estimate.


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Spell Check

t montgomery
opelika, AL
9/9/2015 07:22 PM

  I have been in farming all my life and want to know when people will start looking at the fats of supply and demand instead of using the US ostrich mentality. Hope is a bad business strategy.

Three 40s
cokato, MN
9/9/2015 09:05 PM

  Here in minnesota, the best ground in south mn, the silage guys and crop ins adjuster are only estimating 150 bu corn and they are used to 200 bu, around here the areas where some of the seed was washed out is starting to show in the hill sides, that did not show earlier. and the low spots are also showing there true colors, yes it will be a nice crop but will it make up for the poor spots in parts of the southern states, I do not think so.Put corn in the bin boys, we should see 4.00$ plus corn shortly. All i want is to make a living and want the suppliers and grain buyers come back to reality. commodities are real not the nasdag. we raise real stuff not just worth less money that is based paper well you know,

wayne, NE
9/9/2015 11:55 AM

  Finally, a scientific approach instead of the annual guessing game by USDA "experts". I look forward to the day when this type of technology becomes widely implemented and forecasts are not manipulated for political reasons.


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