Dollar Posts Bearish Reversal

November 13, 2008 06:00 PM

Julianne Johnston Pro Farmer Senior Markets Editor

From Pro Farmer

Updated as of 7:00 a.m. CT

Dollar posts new-for-the-move high... The dollar posted a highly choppy trading range yesterday, moving to a new-for-the-move high early in the day, and then faced profit-taking and posted a bearish reversal for the day. But the move above the October high improves the technical situation of the market, as the trend remains firmly up. Overall, the strengthening dollar is not a positive fundamental development for the commodity markets. The dollar saw spillover pressure overnight.

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Opening calls. These calls originate more than three hours before the open -- use caution, things change:

Corn: 3 to 4 cents higher. Futures were firmer overnight on dollar weakness. Futures closed 6 to 7 cents higher yesterday after a choppy day of trade. Yesterday, March closed equal to last week's close. If futures can see additional short-covering support today, the market will avoid overall losses for the week.

Soybeans: 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher. Futures were mixed overnight, signaling a choppy start. Futures closed slightly higher after a choppy day yesterday. How outside markets perform will be highly influential to the soy complex today. Yesterday, January soybeans penetrated support at last week's low, but closed above it. The contract continues to hover near the middle of the October range.

Wheat: 1 to 4 cents higher. Futures were firmer overnight on spillover from yesterday's gains. Futures saw two-sided trade yesterday, but favored a firmer tone. Wheat enjoyed short-covering support on spillover from the previous day's gains, as well as spreading with corn through much of the day, although contracts moved off session highs into the close as buying interest dried up.

Cash cattle expectations: $1 higher. Nebraska feedlots moved cattle at mostly $1 lower prices Thursday, although cash sources reported no trade in Kansas and Texas. While Nebraska cattle traded lower and cattle futures faced heavy pressure Tuesday and Wednesday, there is still hope Kansas and Texas feedlots could get $95 prices for this week's showlist supplies as beef prices continue to firm.

Futures call: Mixed. Futures are called mixed, but ended with upward momentum yesterday. That could help support futures to start the day, although cattle have been highly influenced by the stock market this week. December futures are trading at a steep discount to last week's cash trade, so confirmation of steady to firmer trade in the Southern Plains should encourage some short-covering in cattle futures.

Cash hog expectations: Steady to weaker. The recent string of price strength in the pork product market came to a screeching halt Thursday as the average pork cutout value was down a sharp $1.17. Packer margins are still solidly above breakeven, but cash hog bids are seen steady to lower to finish the week as this week's slaughter needs have been secured.

Futures call: Mixed. Futures are called to open mixed amid spreading. Upside potential should be limited by the premium December hogs hold to the cash index -- at $3.70 at yesterday's close. How the stock market performs today will also largely influence hog futures to close the week.

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