Evening Report -- Advice (VIP) -- July 3, 2013

July 3, 2013 09:14 AM
 

GOD BLESS AMERICA!... The markets and government offices will be closed for Independence Day, so there will be no Pro Farmer services tomorrow. Trade will resume on Friday, July 5, at 8:30 a.m. CT for grains and at 9:05 a.m. CT for livestock markets. We'll return with full coverage on Friday, beginning with "First Thing Today." May God bless America and have a safe holiday!

 

WHEAT PRODUCERS: MAKE 2013-CROP WHEAT SALES... Wheat futures violated support at the spring lows last week and have been unable to recover back above that old support despite Chinese demand. As a result, we are removing some downside risk by making new-crop cash sales. Wheat hedgers are advised to sell 50% of 2013-crop production in the cash market. Cash-only marketers are advised to make a 25% new-crop sale. We are being more aggressive with sales for hedgers as they can reown a portion of sales in long futures or call options if wheat futures post a seasonal low and show signs of an extended price recovery.

 

INFORMA LOWERS CORN PRODUCTION & YIELD PROJECTIONS... Informa Economics reportedly expects 2013 corn production at 14.259 billion bu., based on USDA's latest harvested acreage estimate of 89.135 million acres and a projected national average yield of 160 bu. per acre. But the firm also notes that early season production potential is very fluid. The national average yield projection is down 0.7 bu. from the firm's late-June forecast. It also reduced its production projection by 67 million bu. from its previous forecast. However, this production estimate still estimates a 3.5 billion bu. increase from the 2012 growing season.

Informa reportedly expects soybean production of 3.376 billion bu. on a national average yield of 43.9 bu. per acre, which is unchanged from the firm's previous projection. The firm used USDA's harvested acreage projection of 76.918 million in its forecast. The firm's forecast for soybean production would be a 361-million-bu. increase from year-ago.

The firm reportedly expects all cotton production of 14.107 million bales on projected harvested area of 8.307 million acres and a national average cotton yield projection of 815,000 pounds per acre. This would be roughly a 3.2-million-bale decline in production from 2012.

 

INFORMA ECONOMICS EXPECTS PRODUCTION DECLINES IN MOST WHEAT CATEGORIES FOR 2013... Informa Economics reportedly updated its small grains forecast today. The firm expects USDA in its July Crop Production Report to peg all wheat production at 2.016 billion bu., which would be down 253 million bu. from the 2012 growing season and 64 million bu. below what was reported in the June WASDE Report. All winter wheat is expected to come in at 1.476 billion bu., with HRW wheat at 730 million bu. (down 223 million bu. from year-ago) and SRW at 532 million bushels (up 89 million bu.). Informa reportedly expects USDA to peg other spring wheat production at 482 million bu. and durum production at 58 million bushels.

 

AVOIDING JAPAN'S BEEF IMPORT SAFEGUARD AHEAD COULD BE CHALLENGING… In "First Thing Today" we alerted of the possibility that increasing beef imports to Japan due to relaxed age limits for cattle (from 20 months to less than 30 months as of Feb. 1) could trigger an import-curbing safeguard measure that would raise the country's beef import tariff from 38.5% to 50%. The April to June quarter imports for chilled and frozen beef won't top the safeguard-triggering levels. "Importers already are curbing imports to avoid the safeguard," an official told the Bureau of National Affairs. In addition, sources say there remains fairly ample inventory, totaling 83,900 MT for the two varieties of beef as of April. Past the April-June period, however, officials predict growing difficulty at preventing the safeguard from triggering as Japan enters its peak period for beef demand.

 

WEEKLY ETHANOL PRODUCTION DECLINES... The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports ethanol production the week ending June 28 declined by 22,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous week to 863,000 bpd. Stocks declined by 5.2% from the previous week to 15.4 million barrels -- the lowest since EIA began recording data in 2010.

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