Evening Report -- July 16, 2012

July 16, 2012 09:40 AM
 

 

CORN CONDITION AGAIN DETERIORATES MORE THAN EXPECTED... USDA reports the condition of the corn crop declined more than expected last week, with more of the crop now rated in "poor" to "very poor" shape (38%) than in "good" to "excellent" shape (31%). Given rising temps and little to no rain in the near-term forecast, traders have reason to add more weather premium in the market.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

16

22

31

27

4

Last week

12

18

30

34

6

Year-ago

4

7

23

50

16

As of Sunday, USDA reports 12% of the crop is in the dough stage compared to 3% last year at this time and 4% on average. Illinois is at 20% (6% on average); Indiana is at 7% (1% on average); and Iowa has 4% in dough (none on average).

 

SOYBEAN CONDITION CONTINUES TO DECLINE... The condition of the soybean crop declined more than traders' expected, with 34% now rated "good" to "excellent," which represents a six-percentage-point decline from last week. USDA reports 30% of the crop is "poor" to "very poor," which is a three-percentage-point increase from last week.

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

10

20

36

30

4

Last week

9

18

33

35

5

Year-ago

3

7

26

51

13

As of Sunday, USDA reports 66% of the crop was blooming compared to 44% last week and 42% on average. USDA also reports 16% of the crop is setting pods compared to 5% last year at this time and 9% on average. Illinois has 15% setting pods (8% on average); Indiana is at 12% (5% on average); and Iowa is at 12% (9% on average).

 

SPRING WHEAT CONDITION DECLINES MARGINALLY... USDA reports the portion of the spring wheat crop rated "good" to "excellent" dropped by one percentage point from last week, which moved into the "poor" category. USDA now rates 65% of the crop in the top two categories compared to 73% last year.

Spring Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

1

7

27

54

11

Last week

1

6

27

54

12

Year-ago

1

4

22

58

15

USDA reports as of Sunday, 94% of the crop was headed compared to 88% last week and 77% on average. Minnesota and South Dakota are 100% headed, followed by North Dakota at 99%, Washington at 93%, Idaho and 92% and Montana at 78% -- all above their respective five-year averages.

 

COTTON CONDITION IMPROVES SLIGHTLY... USDA reports the condition of the cotton crop improved slightly, with the portion of crop rated "good" to "excellent" at 45%, up one percentage point from last week. This compares to 28% last year at this time.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

5

13

37

37

8

Last week

4

14

38

36

8

Year-ago

21

19

32

24

4

As of Sunday, USDA reports 36% of the crop was settling bolls compared to 23% last week and 29% on average. The most advanced crop is in Arkansas, where 87% is setting bolls (57% on average), followed by Louisiana at 75% (72% on average).

 

HEAT DOME SHIFTS WESTWARD THIS WEEK... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says the weather forecast is "very threatening" for corn and soybeans this week as the heat dome shifts westward. Century-mark temps are expected across the Corn Belt today and tomorrow, but less severe temps are seen by Wednesday, which could allow for some showers from Iowa eastward.

"This is a very negative forecast since the worst heat will be concentrated in the best corn areas," says Martell. "East of the Mississippi River corn has already been severely damaged by drought and heat -- some fields are beyond repair in Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio... The dome of high pressure is an equal opportunity provider, now shifting westward and damaging corn prospects in the best rated states -- Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa." Click here for related maps.

 

NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST POINTS TO WORSENING DROUGHT... The National Weather Service forecast for July 22-26 points to conditions that will lead to a widening and worsening of the Midwest drought. The forecast calls for above-normal temps and below-normal precip across the Corn Belt, with the greatest probability of below-normal precip forecast for Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Click here for related maps.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close