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Evening Report (VIP) -- April 22, 2014

15:02PM Apr 22, 2014

Frozen pork stocks lighter than expected... USDA data showed pork stocks in storage as of March 31 came in roughly 54.6 million lbs. lighter than the average pre-report guess of 629.8 million pounds. Beef stocks were around 3.2 million lbs. more than the average pre-report guess of 401.6 million pounds.

Pork stocks as of March 31 totaled 575.223 million pounds. That was 79.5 million lbs. less than the end of February and 72.6 million lbs. less than year-ago.

Beef stocks at the end of March totaled 404.754 million pounds. That was roughly 4.8 million lbs. more than the end of February but 106.5 million lbs. more than year-ago.

Total poultry stocks at 925.853 million lbs. was roughly 67.9 million lbs. less than February and 105.1 million lbs. less than year-ago.


CME Group announces new daily price limits for grain/oilseed futures... New daily trading limits for grain and oilseed futures traded in Chicago will take effect May 1 after approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according the CME Group. On May 1, the initial daily price limits will be as follows:

Commodity Current initial price limit New initial price limit (effective May 1, 2014) New expanded price limit (effective May 1, 2014)
SRW wheat
HRW wheat
Soybean oil
Soybean meal
Rough rice

The daily price limits will be reset twice per year -- on the first trading day of May and the first trading day in November -- based on underlying price levels. There will be no daily price limits for grain and oilseed options.


Consultant raises Brazilian corn crop estimate 2 MMT... It appears Brazilian farmers planted more safrinha (second crop) corn acres than previously expected and weather has been favorable thus far, according to Pro Farmer South American Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. With the safrinha corn crop in generally good condition, he raised his Brazilian corn crop estimate 2 MMT this week to 72 MMT. He says even if rains diminish in May, at least half of Brazil's safrinha corn crop would have enough soil moisture to finish the growing season on a positive note.

Dr. Cordonnier made no other changes to his South American crop estimates this week. His Brazilian bean crop remains at 86.5 MMT, while his Argentine soybean and corn crop estimates are 53.5 MMT and 23.5 MMT, respectively.


HRW wheat states have received just 37% of average rainfall since Christmas... The bread-basket wheat states have received just 1.95 inches of rain on average since Christmas, versus 5.23 inches on average, according to Meteorologist Gail Martell of This along with a hard freeze event last week has pulled HRW crop condition ratings to their lowest levels of the season. The freeze event has also slowed development of the HRW wheat crop. "Wheat development is 8 to 10 days delayed due to the persistent below-average spring temperatures," Martell elaborates.

Martell says that rain is coming to the Plains, but showers are expected to miss the western third of the wheat belt. "Central Kansas is expecting meaningful rain, however, it would take a lot of rain to turn around drought-stressed wheat, " she adds. Get more details and graphics.


Loss ratio on 2013 crop insurance indemnities hits 1.00... Indemnities paid on 2013 crop losses reached $11.822 billion as of April 21, up nearly $350 million compared to the week ended March 24, according to Risk Management Agency (RMA) data. Payouts for 2013 crops are the second highest on record for the program, second to the 2012 record of $17.433 billion. The increase in indemnities also pushed the program to another milestone – the loss ratio (total payouts compared to total premiums paid in) is now at 1.00 – meaning that losses paid out on 2013 crop losses are equal to the total premiums paid in.

So far there are 88.762 million net acres insured for 2014 crops, ahead of the 2013 pace at this point a year ago. Total net acres insured for 2013 crops stand at 295.720 million, a record for the program. Click here for more details.