Evening Report (VIP) -- April 24, 2014

03:10PM Apr 24, 2014
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Traders expect On Feed and Placements near year-ago... According to pre-report trade guesses, traders look for On Feed at 100.2% and Placements at 100.8% of year-ago levels. The range for Placements is wide, ranging from 95.3% to 104% of year-ago. The average trade guess for Marketings is at 96.4% of year-ago.

Report expectations

Avg. Trade Guess


% of year-ago levels

On Feed









It's important to point out that while On Feed supplies are expected to come in equal to year-ago, available marketings are still below year-ago, which reflects a tight supply situation. But recent reports that have shown an increase in Placements, signaling this could change in the coming months. Last month USDA pegged Placements at 115% of year-ago, the February report showed Placements at 109% of year-ago and the January report pegged Placements at 101% of year-ago.


NWS 6- to 10-day: Below-normal temps East of the Rockies... The National Weather Service forecast for April 30 to May 4 calls for below-normal temps east of the Rocky Mountains, along with below-normal precip across the Plains and Missouri. Above-normal precip is expected across the bulk of the eastern Corn Belt, with normal precip expected in Iowa, Minnesota and western Illinois. The forecast points to ongoing planting delays across the Corn Belt through early May. Click here for related maps.


State Canada sees fewer canola and wheat acres than last year... Statistics Canada released its acreage intentions report this morning, in which it said producers plan to seed 0.7% fewer canola acres and 4.8% fewer wheat acres in 2014 compared to last year, with soybean acres expected to rise by 16.5% from year-ago.

Pro Farmer Canada Editor Mike Jubinville provides this perspective:

  • In my view, the March wheat rally probably brought back 1.5 million acres of wheat into seeding intentions, and according to the acreage report, most of that displacement was canola. Relative to my own thinking prior to report, this explains why the trade was about 1 million acres too high on canola and 1 million acres too low on wheat.
  • I believe the trade will still think canola seeded acreage of 20.5 million to 21.0 million will be the final result. A printed 19.8 million figure should eliminate thoughts of 22 million acres.
  • In terms of global money flow, China financial uncertainties, attitudes toward Ukraine politics and perception toward U.S. row crop seeding progress are actually more important than this report. Locally here in Western Canada, timeliness of planting and perception of yield is more important than this report too. A million acres more or less of wheat or canola doesn't matter as much as a 1 bu. to 2 bu. per acre change to yield expectations. Click here for Jubinville's new column on profarmer.com, "Canadian Perspectives."


Drought monitor shows expansion in Southern Plains... This morning's National Drought Monitor reveals drought conditions worsened in portions of central Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, as well as in eastern South Dakota, which has traders looking for further deterioration in winter wheat conditions next week. For the contiguous 48 states, the monitor shows 38.4% of the area in moderate drought or worse, compared to 37.8% the previous week.

The monitor showed very little change to drought conditions in the Corn Belt, although drought worsened slightly in northeast Missouri. Click here for related maps and more regional details.