Evening Report (VIP) -- April 7, 2014

April 7, 2014 10:20 AM

Crop Progress Report delayed... USDA's National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) announced it has delayed the release of the first Crop Progress Report of the spring. NASS will release the report tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. CT.


Traders expect USDA to trim old-crop corn, soybean carryover forecasts... Traders look for USDA to trim its old-crop corn and soybean carryover projections after last week's Quarterly Grain Stocks Report confirmed strong quarterly use. According to pre-report trade guesses compiled by Reuters, traders look for corn carryover to come in at 1.403 billion bu. (1.456 billion bu. last month), with soybean carryover at 139 million bushels (145 million bu. last month). But traders look for USDA to raise its 2013-14 wheat carryover forecast by 25 million bu. from last month to 583 million bu. due to a slowdown in usage.

USDA will release its Supply & Demand Report on Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. CT.

2013-14 carryover



USDA March


in billion bushels

















Beef and pork exports off to strong start... According to USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), beef and pork exports in February were strong despite growing concerns about tight supplies and rising prices. Year-to-date beef exports are up 6% in terms of volume and 14% in terms of value, with year-to-date pork exports up 2% in terms of volume and value.

In its March Supply & Demand Report, USDA projected beef exports in 2014 to be down 5.7% from year-ago, with pork exports expected to be 1.8% stronger than year-ago. Click here for more February meat export details.


Grain union official expects higher Russian grain exports in year-ahead... The head of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky, says Russia could increase its grain exports for the 2014-15 marketing year, in part due to the addition of crops in the Crimea region. Russia will likely produce at least 90 MMT of grain in 2014, of which 25 MMT will be available for export, according to Zlochevsky. Crimea's exports are expected to total 500,000 MT in 2014-15.

Zlochevsky acknowledged lower seed quality and tighter financing by banks this year, but he says favorable weather would make up for these limiting factors. He also said Crimea may not be able to sow all of the area planned for spring grains this year.

Russia's ag ministry expects the nation to harvest a 95-MMT grain crop this year.


Martell: Midwest fields slowly warming... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says topsoil temps are slowly warming, with temps in the southern Corn Belt nearing the 52-degree threshold for germination. "Northern Midwest farms are still frozen and in some areas of Minnesota and North Dakota they are also snow covered. The temperatures last week were still too cold to plant corn in the northern two-thirds of the Corn Belt. Night freezes are expected to continue this week even in the warmer areas of the Midwest," she says.

Meanwhile, Martell notes that drought has spread from the Great Plains into the Midwest and the near-term outlook is dry for much of the western Corn Belt, while better chances of soaking rains are expected across the eastern Belt. Click here for more.

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