Evening Report (VIP) -- August 12, 2013

August 12, 2013 10:37 AM
 

USDA'S CORN AND SOYBEAN ESTIMATES COME IN LOWER THAN EXPECTED... USDA's first survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates would be the largest and third largest on record, respectively, but they were both lower than anticipated. This caused corn futures to move into positive territory and for soybeans to sharply extend early gains. December corn settled off the daily high, but still posted a bullish reversal and soybean futures closed high-range. Click here for Pro Farmer's report reaction.

 

 

USDA LOWERS AVG. CASH STEER PRICE, RAISES CASH HOGS... In this morning's Supply & Demand Report, USDA raised its projection slightly for 2013 beef production, but lowered its projection for pork production. As a result, it lowered the average cash steer price projection by $1 to $124.50 for 2013, but sees prices averaging $131 in 2014 as supplies tighten. USDA raised its average cash hog price projection by $1 to $63 for 2013 and sees prices softening to an average of $60 in 2014 as production increases.

 

 

DRIER FORECAST POSES THREAT TO YIELDS... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says weather models do not predict very much rainfall for the Midwest the remainder of the week. She says this is concerning as crop prospects have declined after sparse rainfall the past 45 days in the western, northern and central Corn Belt. Click here for related maps and additional commentary.

 

 

CORN CONDITION UNCHANGED... The condition of the corn crop is unchanged from last week, with USDA pegging 64% in "good" to "excellent" shape, 25% "fair" and 11% in "poor" to "very poor" shape.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

3

8

25

46

18

Last week

3

8

25

46

18

Year-ago

26

25

26

20

3

 

As of Sunday, USDA says 32% of the crop was in the dough stage, compared to 18% last week and 48% on average. Half of the Illinois crop is in dough (64% average); Indiana is at 33% (49% average); Iowa at just 9% (39% average); Minnesota is at 7% (27% average); Nebraska at 35% (57% average); and Ohio at 40% (48% average).

USDA reports just 5% of the crop has dented, compared to 39% last year at this time and 17% on average.

 

 

SOYBEAN CROP IMPROVES MARGINALLY... USDA reports 64% of the soybean crop is in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is unchanged from last week, but USDA raised the "excellent" category by one percentage point. USDA rates 27% of the crop "fair" and just 9% "poor" to "very poor."

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

7

27

50

14

Last week

2

7

27

51

13

Year-ago

16

22

32

26

4

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 58% of the crop was setting pods versus 39% last week and 68% on average. Illinois is at 63% (67% average); Indiana is at 66% (59% average); Iowa is at 53% (80% average); Minnesota is at 58% (72% average); Nebraska is at 72% (72% average); and Ohio is at 72% (68% average).

Meanwhile, USDA reports 88% of the crop was blooming, which compares to 79% last week and 92% on average.

 

 

SPRING WHEAT CONDITION DETERIORATES SLIGHTLY... USDA reports the condition of the spring wheat crop declined slightly with 66% rated "good" to "excellent," which is down two percentage points from last week. USDA rates 26% of the crop as "fair," with 8% "poor" to "very poor."

Spring Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

6

26

57

9

Last week

2

5

25

59

9

Year-ago

2

9

28

52

9

 

USDA reports as of Sunday that 6% of the crop was harvested, compared to 61% last year and 24% on average. Harvest is 22% complete in Washington (22% average); 21% done in South Dakota (61% average); and 20% complete in Idaho (9% average). North Dakota has just 2% harvested (23% average) and Minnesota is only 3% done (35% average).

 

 

COTTON CROP CONDITION DECLINES... As expected, the condition of the cotton crop declined last week amid hot and dry weather. USDA rates 43% in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is down two percentage points from last week. USDA rates 32% "fair" and 25% "poor" to "very poor."

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

10

15

32

34

9

Last week

7

14

34

35

10

Year-ago

10

18

30

32

10

 

USDA says as of Sunday that 73% of the crop was setting bolls, compared to 53% last week and 81% on average. Arizona is at 92% (87% average) and Texas is at 69% (76% average).

 

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