Evening Report (VIP) -- August 16, 2012

August 16, 2012 10:27 AM
 

CERTIFIED ACREAGE DATA UPDATE... In "First Thing Today" this morning we reported that the analysis of the initial release of FSA certified acreage data for 2012 indicates that planted acreage for the U.S. corn and soybean crop is likely higher than current estimates from NASS. It now appears that by how much is even greater than originally reported. Soybean plantings are now seen around 1.8 million acres above NASS's current estimate while corn plantings are seen as 1.3 million acres higher. Contacts indicate the FSA data was one factor that kept NASS from reducing harvested acres more than they did in the August Crop Production Report.

 

 

CPC ISSUES SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER OUTLOOK... The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) extended weather outlook for September calls for above-normal temps to stretch from the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast and from the Canadian border to the Mexican border, with the only exceptions being states along the Gulf Coast. CPC's precip outlook shows below-normal precip chances for all of Iowa, Missouri and Illinois along with the edges of all states that border them. The Gulf Coast region has above-normal precip chances.

CPC's temperature outlook for September through November calls for much of the same. Above-normal temps are expected from the Rockies eastward with the exception of Gulf Coast states. The precip outlook, on the other hand, improves over the 90 day outlook, with equal chances for normal, above- and below-normal precip for the bulk of the nation's midsection. The Gulf Coast region again has above-normal precip chances.

As a result of these forecasts, CPC's U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for Aug. 16 to Nov. 30 calls for drought to persist or intensify in southern South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri the southwest half of Iowa and southern Illinois. Other areas of the Corn Belt are expected to see drought conditions ease. Southern Texas is also expected to see some drought improvement, while the rest of the Southern Plains is forecast to see drought persist or intensify. Click here to view all the maps.

 

 

CATTLE ON FEED TO REFLECT TIGHTENING CALF SUPPLY... Traders look for Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed Report to reflect a tightening calf supply, as Placements are expected at only 91.4% of year-ago despite worsening pasture conditions. Combined with a Marketings pace that was bigger than year-ago last month -- expected at 101.6% -- the number of Cattle On Feed is expected to decline to 100.7% of year-ago. But with Placements slipping well below year-ago, traders will expect available cattle for marketing to begin slipping below year-ago in the coming months.

Report expectations

Avg. Trade Guess

Range

% of year-ago levels

On Feed

100.7

99.6-101.5

Placements

91.4

86.7-99.0

Marketings

101.6

99.6-104.0

 

 

RFS MANDATE WAIVER CRITICISM... We've recently reported that a growing number of Senators and livestock groups are calling for modification to the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS). But on the other side of the aisle, some corn ethanol mandate supporters are asking, "Why didn't feeders get coverage earlier this summer when the price of corn dropped?"

 

 

CENTRAL CORN BELT LAND VALUES UP 15% OVER YEAR AGO... The results of the latest quarterly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago today showed the value of district farmland in the central Corn Belt rose 15% compared to year-ago, but rose only 1% during the second quarter versus the previous quarter. The bank serves the northern two-thirds of Illinois and Indiana, all of Iowa, the lower peninsula of Michigan and southeast Wisconsin. Iowa led the charge to higher land values with an annual increase of 24%. Illinois is up 15% on an annual basis with Indiana and Wisconsin up 12% and 13%, respectively. Click here for on rising farmland values.

 

 

AG INDUSTRY SUPPORT FOR ROMNEY/RYAN... Several polls of farmers and others at industry meetings signal widespread farmer/ag industry support for presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. Speaking of Wisconsin, a group of farmers from the state say Romney could win the state. "He is a leader and this state wants change," one farmer explains.

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