Evening Report (VIP) -- August 22, 2013

August 22, 2013 10:07 AM
 

PRO FARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR STATE RESULTS...
Ohio corn yield:
171.64 bu. per acre, 110.50 bu. in 2012, 3-year avg. 144.12 bu.
Ohio bean pod count in 3'X3' square: 1,283.61, 1,033.72 in 2012, 3-year avg. 1,162.64
South Dakota corn yield: 161.75 bu. per acre, 74.26 bu. in 2012, 3-year avg. 119.65 bu.
South Dakota pod count in 3'X3' square: 1,016.68, 584.93 in 2012, 3-year avg. 984.62
Indiana corn yield: 167.36 bu. per acre, 113.25 bu. in 2012, 3-year avg. 141.14 bu.
Indiana bean pods in 3'X3' square: 1,185.14, 1,033.24 in 2012, 3-year avg. 1,136.48
Nebraska corn yield: 154.93 bu. per acre, 131.79 bu. in 2012, 3-year avg. 147.93 bu.
Nebraska pod count in 3'X3' square: 1,138.94, 894.43 in 2012, 3-year avg. 1,162.42
Illinois corn yield: 170.48 bu. per acre, 121.6 bu. in 2012, 3-year avg. 148.04 bu.
Illinois pod count in 3'X3' square: 1,115.97, 944.05 in 2012, 3-year avg. 1,149.47

PRELIMINARY DAY 4 REPORTS: SCOUTS NOTE EXTREME VARIABILITY, IMMATURITY... The eastern leg of the 2013 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour began in Iowa City, Iowa, while the western leg departed from Spencer, Iowa, with both legs heading toward Rochester, Minnesota. Final results Iowa and Minnesota will be released tonight on www.profarmer.com. Following are preliminary route reports from Tour leaders.

Western Tour Leader and Pro Farmer Editor Chip Flory sampled fields in the southern Minnesota counties of Jackson (district 7), Martin, Fairbault and Waseca (district 8). In the southwest district 7, corn samples ranged from 136 bu. per acre to 226 bu. per acre while samples from the south central district (8) ranged from 89 bu. per acre to 187 bu. per acre. Samples pulled so far on his route average 154.2 bu. per acre.

"Nitrogen deficiency can be seen in almost every field," Flory says, so much so that "a nice, dark-green field stands out." Flory says scouts are seeing a lot of yellowing plants and yellowing down the leaves, which are tell-tale signs of nitrogen deficiency. Flory also explained that the field with the low yield seemed like the farmer made a management decision not to do anything else with it.

"The scary thing," according to Flory, is that most of the corn is in the late-milk to early dough stage, meaning around 45 days until black layer. "That means there's a lot of work to do on corn."

On soybeans, Flory has pulled samples ranging from 218 pods in a 3'x3' square to 1,624, with an average of 859 pods per 3'x3' square. While Flory says he pulled a few 1,200-plus pod samples in Fairbault and he's heard reports of solid pod counts from others scouting Minnesota, he says that "with the bean crop planted late-May through June, it's going to be tough to build a bean yield."

Eastern Tour Leader and Pro Farmer Senior Market Analyst Brian Grete has sampled the Iowa counties of Benton (district 6), Buchanan, Black Hawk, Bremer and Chickasaw (district 3). Corn samples ranged from 129 bu. per acre to 202 bu. per acre thus far today, with an average yield of 162.2 bu. per acre.

Grete notes that he continues to see a lot of variability with the Iowa crop, along with many holes in the field. In fact, Grete says his group came across a field that had recently pollinated and will need quite a bit of time to make grain.

Grete's soybean samples today have yielded an average pod count of 1,044.1 in a 3'x3' square. Grete says that while beans in Iowa have been "pretty clean with decent plant health," he says pod counts have been "average to below average."

 

PORK AND BEEF SUPPLIES TIGHTEN... This afternoon's Cold Storage Report showed total pork and beef supplies in cold storage declined by four percentage points from last month. While beef supplies are one percentage point higher than a year-ago, pork supplies are one percentage point smaller than year-ago.

Total frozen poultry supplies rose three percentage points from last month and are up five percentage points from year-ago. Total red meat supplies are down three percentage points from last month and down marginally from year-ago. The reports are neutral for the cattle and hog markets.

 

COF TO REFLECT TIGHTENING SUPPLIES... USDA will release its monthly feedlot count via the Cattle on Feed Report tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. CT. The report is expected to reflect an aggressive marketing pace and lighter-than-year-ago placements to result in an On Feed number around four percentage points below year-ago levels.

Report expectations

Avg. Trade Guess

Range

% of year-ago levels

On Feed

95.8

94.4-98.2

Placements

97.5

92.9-111.6

Marketings

104.4

102.5-106.1

 

MIDWEST DROUGHT SPREADS... According to the National Drought Monitor, 55.05% of the Midwest is free of drought, which is down from 72.82% from last week. Drought now covers 82.43% of Iowa (74.5% last week) and 62.8% of Illinois (44.82% last week). National statistics reveal drought expanded by around two percentage points from last week to cover 60% of the contiguous U.S. Click here for related maps.

 

LUCAS LISTS TOP THREE ISSUES FOR BUSINESS OF AG... House Ag Committee Chairman Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) spoke Wednesday with Ramey Cozart on KKBS radio (Guymon, Okla.) and was asked: "What’s the No. 1 thing affecting production agriculture right now?" Lucas provided a general overview of the economic and policy landscape by breaking down the outlook into short, medium and long-term perspectives. Lucas says that over the short-term, it's still weather issues.

Over the intermediate timeframe, Lucas says, "the real question is about the farm bill. We’re operating now in the sixth year of a five-year farm bill. Will I be able to go to conference in September? Can I work out the differences with the Senate and get a farm bill on the books? Because remember, while most farmers and ranchers know that the biggest part of the money in the farm bill is food stamps now, nonetheless the farm bill is the commodity title, it’s crop insurance, it’s the conservation programs, it’s CRP and rural development and farm credit, all those things. The farm bill is very important, especially if Mother Nature decides that the last few weeks of green is just temporary and we go back to drought conditions next year and the year after, or world markets take a hiccup, the Chinese stop buying imports, what that does to demand, or just a whole myriad of things. So putting the farm bill on the books is, in the intermediate, the next most important thing."

Lucas noted that, "If you just want to talk about a long ways down the road, the trade agreements that are going on, because right now the President’s proposed, and it’s a legitimate thing, ... trying to negotiate with the European Union a trade agreement to open up imports and exports to a greater degree with the Europeans and with the Pacific Rim countries; they’re trying to negotiate that. ... But the thing on trade agreements is it’s not just trade—is it fair? By that are the tariffs really the same for stuff going in and out of the country? Will the people we deal with in other countries standardize what they refer to as phytosanitary standards? Will they grade and deal with bug and pest and variety issues in a fair and equitable fashion? If trade is fair, these trade agreements, if they can be concluded, in the long run will open up more markets to us, but it’s got to be fair."

Washington Consultant Jim Wiesemeyer notes that he would add a very important topic -- the economy, not only the U.S. but around the world. After all, it's not just the need for imports that is important, but it's the ability to pay. That brings in a host of related issues such as currency moves, interest rates and energy prices -- those are major topics for agriculture.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close