Evening Report (VIP) -- August 26, 2013

August 26, 2013 09:36 AM
 

CORN CROP CONDITION DECLINES AS EXPECTED... USDA reports as of Sunday 59% of the U.S. corn crop was rated "good" to "excellent," which is down two percentage points from last week. The decline is in line with traders' expectations, but traders look for next week's report to show a steeper percentage loss due to oppressive heat and no rain forecast for this week.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

4

10

27

44

15

Last week

4

9

26

44

17

Year-ago

26

26

26

19

3

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 70% of the crop was in dough stage, which compares to 52% last week and 79% on average. USDA reports 23% of the crop is dented compared to 11% last week and 45% on average to reflect a crop that is around two weeks behind the normal pace of development. Illinois has 29% dented (56% average); Indiana is at 22% (42% average); Iowa is at 9% (46% average); Minnesota is at 5% (32% average), Nebraska is at 29% (52% average) and Ohio is at 22% (36% average).

 

 

CONDITION OF SOYBEAN CROP DECLINES MORE THAN EXPECTED... USDA reports 58% of the nation's soybean crop is rated "good" to "excellent," which is down four percentage points from last week. That is more than traders expected. And given this week's heatwave and forecasts calling for a lack of precip, traders expect the pace of crop deterioration to intensify.

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

3

10

29

46

12

Last week

2

8

28

48

14

Year-ago

17

21

32

26

4

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 84% of the crop was setting pods compared to 72% last week and 90% on average. Illinois is at 83% (91% average), Indiana is at 88% (87% average); Iowa is at 83% (95% average); Minnesota is at 85% (95% average); Nebraska is at 94% (94% average); and Ohio is at 92% (94% average).

 

 

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT NOTED IN COTTON CONDITION... USDA reports the condition of the cotton crop improved slightly, with the portion of crop rated "good" to "excellent" up two percentage points at 47%.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

8

12

33

39

8

Last week

9

14

31

37

9

Year-ago

10

18

29

33

10

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 10% of the crop was opening bolls compared to 8% last week and 20% on average. Arizona is at 41% (48% average) and Texas is at 13% (19% average).

 

 

SPRING WHEAT HARVEST 42% COMPLETE... USDA reports 42% of the nation's spring wheat crop has been harvested versus 18% last week and 54% on average. Leading the way is South Dakota at 75% (91% average), followed by Idaho with 69% harvested (39% average), Minnesota at 65% (66% average) and Washington at 64% (53% average). North Dakota has 28% harvested (53% on average).

 

 

LARGE HEAT DOME BLOCKING OUT MIDWEST RAINS... Corn and soybean futures surged overnight and extended gains in daytime trade on concerns hot and dry weather this week would trim yield prospects. Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says maximum temps in the low 90s F are expected the next several days, with only "ridge rider" storms possible in North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. She says with over half of the Corn Belt in jeopardy from drought, further crop stress will be felt this week.

Martell says the GFS (American) weather model anticipates a westward shirt in the heat dome late Thursday-Friday, which if realized, would open the door to shower potentials in the Great Lakes region. Click here for related maps.

 

 

NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR MIDWEST PRECIP... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for Sept. 1-5 calls for above-normal temps to continue across the Corn Belt, but the forecast also includes improved chances of rain for most of the Corn Belt. Click here to view related maps.

 

 

RMA CLARIFIES PREVENT PLANTING STANDARDS IN PRAIRIE POTHOLE AREA... To qualify for Prevented Planting (PP) in the Prairie Pothole National Priority Area, acreage must have been "planted and harvested (or incurred an insurable loss other than for excess moisture) in at least one out of the last four years, regardless of whether any of those years was abnormally dry," according to a new special provision statement from USDA's Risk Management Agency (RMA). This special provision is intended to clarify what acreage is eligible for PP in the region, which includes areas of Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. The new provision applies to prevented planting and acreage for the 2014 crop and succeeding years in the Prairie Pothole region. The statement was developed by RMA in response to recommendations made by crop insurance companies, the USDA Office of Inspector General, and producers in the Prairie Pothole regions.

 

 

MIDWEST CROP TOUR HIGHLIGHTED ON U.S. FARM REPORT... The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour has wrapped up and over the weekend U.S. Farm Report aired segments from the final crop scout meeting in Rochester, Minnesota. Click on each segment to see what Tour leaders had to say about this year's crop potential after all the Crop Tour data was gathered and analyzed. More.

 

 

POSSIBLE FARM BILL FEATURES... If there is a new farm bill (still very much up in the air), the following will likely be some of its important features:

  • Dairy program: A gross margin program would replace the current program. Although it is a close call, dairy supply management language will not likely be in any compromise measure.
  • Farmer safety net: Farmers will be given a choice between a revenue assurance plan favored by the Senate, and a target price plan favored by many in the House. The safety net provisions will look more like the language in the House-passed farm bill.
  • No major changes for current crop insurance program. A new Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) will be offered.
  • The maximum acres in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be reduced from the current 32 million maximum acres to either 24 million acres in House bill or 25 million acres in Senate bill.
  • Cotton producers would be provided a new revenue assurance program called STAX that is under the crop insurance title of the farm bill and thus there would be no payment caps.
  • A new bill will include a new USDA Undersecretary of Trade.
     
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