Evening Report (VIP) -- August 5, 2013

August 5, 2013 09:40 AM
 

CORN CROP MILDLY IMPROVES... As of Sunday, USDA rated the corn crop 64% "good" to "excellent," up 1 percentage point from the previous week. Traders were anticipating no change in the portion of crop rated in the top two categories. USDA still rates 11% of the corn crop "poor" to "very poor."

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

3

8

25

46

18

Last week

3

8

26

46

17

Year-ago

25

25

27

20

3

 

As of Sunday, 86% of the crop was silking compared to 71% last week and 89% on average. Iowa (72% versus 89% on average) and Minnesota (84% versus 91% on average) remain noticeably behind the normal pace. Meanwhile, 18% of the crop is now in dough stage, up 10 percentage points from last week, but 13 points behind the five-year average. Illinois is at 30% (49% on average), Indiana is at 13% (31% on average), Iowa is at 2% (21% on average), Minnesota is at 2% (11% on average) and Nebraska is at 14% (37% on average).

 

 

BEAN CROP ALSO MILDLY IMPROVES... As of Sunday, USDA says 64% of the soybean crop is rated "good" to "excellent," an increase of 1 percentage point from last week. Traders were expecting no change in the top two categories. USDA still rates 9% of the crop "poor" to "very poor."

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

7

27

51

13

Last week

2

7

28

50

13

Year-ago

16

23

32

25

4

 

USDA says 79% of the crop is now blooming, up 14 percentage points from last week, but 6 points behind the five-year average. Iowa has only 79% of the crop blooming versus 92% on average. Minnesota stands at 81% blooming compared to 88% on average. Thirty-nine percent of the crop is now setting pods compared to 20% last week and the five-year average of 51%. Illinois is at 39% (50% on average), Indiana is at 55% (41% on average), Iowa is at 35% (65% on average), Minnesota is at 28% (51% on average) and Nebraska is at 50% (51% on average).

 

 

SPRING WHEAT CROP RATINGS DECLINE SLIGHTLY... There was no change in the portion of crop USDA rates in the top two categories as a whole, but there was a two-percentage-point shift from "excellent" to "good." USDA also now rates 7% of the spring wheat crop "poor" to "very poor" compared to 6% last week.

Spring Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

5

25

59

9

Last week

2

4

26

57

11

Year-ago

2

9

26

53

10

 

As of Sunday, USDA says 97% of the spring wheat crop was headed, which is now just 1 percentage point behind the five-year average. The North Dakota crop is now 98% headed compared to 99% on average.

 

 

COTTON CROP CONDITION MOSTLY UNCHANGED... USDA says 45% of the cotton crop is rated "good" to "excellent," unchanged from the previous week. There was, however, a 1-percentage-point shift from the "very poor" category into "fair."

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

7

14

34

35

10

Last week

8

14

33

35

10

Year-ago

10

17

32

32

9

 

As of Sunday, 94% of the cotton crop was squaring, which is right in line with the five-year average. USDA says 53% of the crop is setting bolls, up 14 percentage points from the previous week, but 17 points behind the five-year average. Only 42% of the Texas crop is setting bolls compared to 62% on average.

 

 

INFORMA LOWERS CORN, SOYBEAN CROP FORECASTS... Informa Economics reportedly forecasts corn production at 14.140 billion bu. on a national average yield of 158.6 bu. per acre. That's down from the firm's July projections of 14.259 billion bu. and 160.0 bu. per acre. In July, USDA projected the corn crop at 13.950 billion bu. and the national average yield at 156.5 bu. per acre.

Informa reportedly forecasts soybean production at 3.266 billion bu. and the national average yield at 42.7 bu. per acre. That's down from the firm's July projections of 3.376 billion bu. and 43.9 bu. per acre. Sources close to the firm indicate Informa lowered its soybean planted and harvested acreage projections by 500,000 acres. In July, USDA projected the soybean crop at 3.420 billion bu. and the national average yield at a record 44.5 bu. per acre.

Informa reportedly pegs cotton production at 13.910 million bales on a yield of 824 lbs. per acre. In July, Informa forecast the cotton crop at 14.107 million bales and the yield at 815 lbs. per acre. Last month, USDA projected the cotton crop at 13.5 million bales and the national average yield at 831 lbs. per acre.

USDA will release its first survey-based estimates of the U.S. corn, soybean and cotton crops in the Aug. 12 Crop Production Report.

 

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