Evening Report (VIP) -- December 17, 2013

December 17, 2013 08:58 AM

FIRST BRAZILIAN BEANS TO BE HARVESTED IN EARLY JANUARY... Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says the earliest maturing soybeans in Brazil will be in Mato Grosso, where these short-season beans are expected to be harvested within three weeks. He says some early harvest will follow in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, as well.

Dr. Cordonnier explains the first soybeans generally go to local processors, but once their operations are up and running, beans will start flowing to the ports. "There may be a trickle of soybean exports out of Brazil by the end of January, but the significant exports will start in February," he notes. "By the end of February 2014, there might be as much as 2 MMT of soybean exports from Brazil. March will be the first really big soybean export month in Brazil," Cordonnier continues.

After last year's extended shipping delays, Dr. Cordonnier says Brazilian officials are confident they have made adequate improvements to the Port of Paranagua to avoid a repeat of last year. Click here for a list of improvements port officials say will improve this year's shipping season.

"If everything works right and there are no major accidents like the fire that occurred at the Port of Santos in October and the weather is drier than last year, then they may get lucky and have a good export season," adds Dr. Cordonnier.


CONSULTANT LEAVES SOUTH AMERICAN CROP PEGS UNCHANGED... Dr. Cordonnier has left his estimates of the South American corn and soybean crops unchanged, noting the weather in Brazil remains favorable for crop development. He says while reports of rust continue to rise, they are not at an alarming level. He currently pegs the Brazilian soybean crop at 90 MMT and says since his estimate is already quite high, further upside to the crop is limited.

Dr. Cordonnier pegs the Brazilian corn crop at 68.5 MMT and reminds the size of the safrinha corn crop remains the moving target.

Meanwhile, there is some developing dryness in Argentina that is aiding in planting, but will become a concern if the dry spell extends another 10 days or so. Dr. Cordonnier says soybean planting is now 70% complete. He left his estimate of the bean crop at 56 MMT and has a neutral bias toward the crop. He says corn planting is 60% complete and he left his production estimate unchanged at 24 MMT.


GRASSLEY EXPECTS BIODIESEL BLENDER TAX CREDIT EXTENSION... Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) on a conference call today said he expects the biodiesel blender tax credit to be extended next year, after the lapse of these credits at the end of 2013, according to Reuters. Grassley detailed that the Senate Finance Committee is expected to produce a legislative package in 2014 that extends 50 expiring tax provisions, including the $1 per gallon biodiesel blender tax credits. Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus informally included an "extenders" bill on the committee agenda for 2014, according to Grassley. He also noted the package could again be made retroactive.


BUDGET AGREEMENT SURVIVES PROCEDURAL VOTE IN SENATE... The Senate advanced a two-year budget deal via a key procedure vote this morning by a vote of 67-33, setting the stage for a simple majority up-or-down vote later this week. The measure is expected to clear the chamber. Twelve Republicans joined all 55 Democrats and Independents in voting for cloture. The House easily approved the measure last week, despite opposition by some conservative groups such as the Heritage Action and Club for Growth. President Barack Obama has already said he would sign the legislation that would raise discretionary spending $63 billion over the next two years.


U.S. FARM REPORT ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSES 2014 OUTLOOK... Digital Managing Editor Julianne Johnston represented Pro Farmer recently in a discussion on 2014 market outlook on the U.S. Farm Report. Click here to watch.

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