Evening Report (VIP) -- December 26, 2013

December 26, 2013 08:28 AM
 

H&P REPORT EXPECTED TO SHOW MILD HERD EXPANSION PLANS... Traders are expecting USDA's Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report Friday afternoon to show a total hog inventory about in line with year-ago. But the data is also expected to signal mild herd expansion plans amid cheaper feed costs, as fall farrowings along with winter and spring farrowing intentions are seen coming in above year-ago. The question is whether impacts from porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) are reflected in the data. Based on the average pre-report guesses, traders expect All Hogs & Pigs at 99.9%, Kept for Breeding at 101% and Kept for Marketing at 99.8% of year-ago levels.

Quarterly H&P Report Expectations

Avg. trade guess

Range

 

% of year-ago

All Hogs and Pigs

99.9

98.6-101.0

Kept for breeding

101.0

100.2-101.9

Kept for marketing

99.8

98.4-101.1

Sept.-Nov. pig crop

101.2

99.1-102.7

Sept.-Nov. pigs per litter

100.8

98.7-102.4

Sept.-Nov. farrowings

100.4

100.1-100.6

Dec.-Feb. farrowing int.

100.9

100.5-101.8

Mar.-May farrowing int.

101.2

97.6-102.0

Hogs under 50 lbs.

99.7

97.8-101.4

Hogs 50 to 119 lbs.

99.7

98.6-101.4

Hogs 120-179

99.9

98.1-101.3

Hogs 180 and over

100.1

99.2-101.1

 

 

FSA REMINDS COUNTY OFFICES OF NO 2014 MAL/LDP AUTHORITY...
Expiration of the extended 2008 Farm Bill means that authority for 2014-crop marketing assistance loans (MAL) and loan deficiency payments (LDP) does not exist. The primary commodities affected at this stage are mohair, unshorn pelts and wool where the 2014 marketing year starts Jan. 1. Mohair MAL and LDP authority has been expired since April 11, 2011, and remains that way. County offices can still accept MAL and LDP requests for 2013 crops (except mohair) but are unable to process any requests for 2014 crops at this stage.

 

 

EPA ADMINISTRATOR TO TESTIFY AT FIRST CLIMATE HEARING OF THE NEW YEAR ON JAN. 16... The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold what will likely be the first climate change hearing of 2014, focusing on policies President Barack Obama is pursuing to cut greenhouse gases in the absence of congressional action. The Jan. 16 hearing will include testimony from Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy, who is overseeing the agency's efforts to limit carbon dioxide emissions from new and existing power plants. Also expected to testify before the Environment and Public Works Committee, chaired by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), are yet-to-be named representatives from other federal agencies charged with implementing other pieces of Obama's climate plan, unveiled by the president in June.

 

 

CHINA REOPENS INVESTIGATION INTO U.S. CHICKEN AFTER LOSING WTO CHALLENGE... China will reinvestigate U.S. poultry-product shipments for potential violations of trade terms after the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled against penalties the government imposed on imports. The country will seek evidence that U.S. poultry products were subsidized and sold below cost, according to a statement on the website of the Ministry of Commerce. According to the statement, the ministry will do so "in accordance with the ruling and suggestion of the relevant report by the WTO experts group." The ministry elaborates that it will "look again at the evidence and information obtained from the original anti-dumping and anti-subsidy reports, and carry out another investigation by means of questionnaires and hearings."

While the WTO ruled in August that China unfairly penalized imports, U.S. products may still be charged dumping duties as long as the investigation continues. China first announced charges on U.S. poultry in August of 2010; Sanctions were as high as 105.4%, according to China’s Commerce Ministry. The U.S filed its WTO complaint against the tariffs in September 2011. U.S. exports, mostly chicken feet shunned by its own consumers, continued entering China even with the anti-dumping duties, while Chinese poultry could not access the U.S. market.

 

2013 CROP INSURANCE INDEMNITIES PASS $7.5 BILLION... U.S. crop insurance indemnities for 2013 crops hit $7.556 billion as of Dec. 23, up 6% from the prior week but still well behind the level of payouts for 2012 crops that were seen at this point one year ago, according to Risk Management Agency (RMA) data. Corn payouts have edged up to $2.658 billion, up more than 12% from the prior week, while wheat indemnities at $2.182 billion were up less than 1%. The loss ratios for the two crops stand at 0.57 for corn and 1.11 for wheat.

Cotton (1.11), rice (1.81), grain sorghum (1.02) and flue-cured tobacco are the only other "major" commodities with a loss ratio over 1.0 – the level where indemnities exceed the total premiums paid in. The premium subsidy level so far for 2013 stands at 61.8% compared with 62.8% for 2012 crops.

While some have started talking about potential payouts under the Group Risk Income Protection (GRIP) and Group Risk Plan payouts on 2013 crops in states like Illinois, it’s not clear yet how much of a difference in total payouts will be. For 2013 corn, there are 1.9 million acres enrolled in the GRIP-H (GRIP with harvest price exclusion) option and 252,786 acres in GRP compared to 73.732 million acres for Risk Protection (RP) policies and total net insured acres for corn of 84.424 million. Get more details.

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