Evening Report (VIP) -- February 27, 2014

February 27, 2014 09:11 AM


Weather contrasts continue across Brazil... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says scattered showers are expected the next 48 hours across southern Brazil, with Rio Grande do Sul and Parana expecting rains of 0.25 to 1.5 inches. But as a percent of normal, she notes southern Brazil and Argentina are still lagging for the month.

Martell says overall dryness in southern Brazil contrasts with excessive rains of up to 10 inches over a 10-day stretch in Mato Grosso, which is raising concerns about harvest and the quality of the crop. Additionally, she says weather models have again turned wet after a few days of sunshine in Mato Grosso, with up to 6 inches expected over the next five days.


IGC makes minor revisions to global balance sheets... The International Grain Council lowered its forecast for 2013-14 global total grain carryover by 1 MMT from last month to 386 MMT, which compares to 334 MMT in 2012-13. It raised global wheat carryover by 2 MMT to 190 MMT (173 MMT last season) and trimmed its global corn carryover forecast by 4 MMT to 154 MMT (127 MMT last season). The group trimmed its global 2013-14 soybean carryover forecast by 2 MMT to 27 MMT (26 MMT last season).

In its preliminary view of the 2014-15 outlook, it says global wheat production could decline by 2% from this year "as yields are unlikely to be as high as the exceptional levels the previous year." It says stocks are projected to be slightly lower due to firm demand, although trade is set to fall from this year's peak "predominately on lower needs from China."

It also says yields for corn, barley and canola in 2014-15 will be down from the previous year, with corn and rapeseed/canola production projected to decline by 1% and barley by 5%. Additionally, it says, "Global feed use of distillers dried grains is set to rise by 6% this year (2014-15). U.S. availabilities have soared with the rapid expansion in maize-based fuel-ethanol, and exports have been robust in the year to date, led by strong sales to China, despite higher prices relative to maize." Click here for more on IGC's DDG projections.


PEDV reports remain elevated... According to USDA's National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN), the number of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) cases reported the week ending Feb. 16 totaled 310, taking the grand total to 3,873 since the outbreak began. Additionally, the data for the previous two weeks was revised higher. PEDV cases have more than doubled since mid-December. Click here for a related chart.


Drought Monitor reflects slight drought expansion... According to the National Drought Monitor, 54.11% of the contiguous U.S. is covered by some form of drought, which is up from 53.21% last week. Drought expanded across the South, with nearly 70% of the region now covered by drought, up from 61% last week. Meanwhile, across the High Plains and Midwest regions, slight drought improvement was noted.

Regarding Midwest snow, the monitor states, "Although there are some uncertainties regarding how much of the moisture will run off and how much will soak in, the latest storm resulted in further reductions in the coverage of dryness (D0) and lingering drought (D1 and D2)." Click here for related maps.

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