Evening Report (VIP) -- July 15, 2013

July 15, 2013 10:32 AM
 

CONDITION OF CORN CROP SLIPS... Traders expected this afternoon's crop condition ratings from USDA to show little change in the crop from last week, but USDA's report reflects slight deterioration in ratings. USDA rates 66% of the crop in "good" to "excellent" shape, which represents a two-percentage-point decline from last week. USDA rates 25% of the crop in "fair" shape, with 9% in "poor" to "very poor" categories. This week's crop condition ratings could help to shore up support for new-crop corn in overnight trade.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

3

6

25

49

17

Last week

2

6

24

51

17

Year-ago

16

22

31

27

4

 

Meanwhile, USDA reports as of Sunday that 16% of the crop was silking, which is a 10-percentage-point gain from last week and compares to 67% last year at this time and 35% on average. This shows a crop about a month behind last year's fast pace and about two weeks behind the average pace. Illinois has 21% silking (50% average); Indiana is at 22% (39% average); Iowa is at just 1% (29% average); Minnesota is at 1% (24% average); Nebraska is at 14% (36% average); and Ohio is at 19% (30% average).

 

 

SOYBEAN CROP CONDITION ALSO SLIPS... The condition of the soybean crop declined slightly last week, with USDA rating 65% of the crop "good" to "excellent," which is a two-percentage-point decline from last week. Traders expected condition ratings to hold steady. As a result, this news could help to support new-crop futures in overnight trade. USDA rates 27% of the crop in "fair" shape, with 8% in "poor" to "very poor" condition.

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

6

27

52

13

Last week

2

5

26

55

12

Year-ago

10

20

36

30

4

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 26% of the soybean crop was blooming, which is a 16-percentage-point gain from last week. But this compares to 63% last year and 40% on average. USDA reports 32% of the Illinois crop is blooming (38% average); Indiana is at 30% (36% average); Iowa at 13% (52% average); Minnesota at 21% (40% average); Nebraska at 39% (40% average); and Ohio at 27% (35% average).

 

 

SPRING WHEAT CROP CONDITION RATINGS DECLINE... USDA reports the condition of the spring wheat crop declined last week, but still rates 70% of the crop in "good" to "excellent" shape. This is a two-percentage-point decline from last week and compares to 65% last year at this time. USDA rates 25% of the crop "fair," with just 5% in "poor" to "very poor" shape.

Spring Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

1

4

25

57

13

Last week

1

4

23

59

13

Year-ago

1

7

27

54

11

 

USDA reports as of Sunday that 71% of the crop was headed, which compares to 45% last week and 73% on average. Leading the way is South Dakota at 97% (94% average), followed by Washington at 95% (90% average). North Dakota also made big gains last week with 62% now headed, compared to 33% last week and 72% on average.

 

 

WINTER WHEAT HARVEST 67% COMPLETE... USDA reports that 67% of the nation's winter wheat crop was harvested as of Sunday, which compares to 57% last week and 71% on average. Kansas has 98% harvested, with Oklahoma and Texas also nearly complete. Meanwhile, Illinois is at 88% complete (92% average) and Indiana is at 68% complete (89% average), with Ohio just 28% harvested (82% average).

 

 

COTTON CROP POSTS SLIGHT DETERIORATION... USDA reports the condition of the cotton crop declined slightly, with 42% now rated "good" to "excellent," which is a two-percentage point decline from last week. USDA reports 32% of the crop is "fair," with 26% now rated "poor" to "very poor."

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

10

16

32

32

10

Last week

9

15

32

34

10

Year-ago

5

13

37

37

8

 

USDA reports as of Sunday that 17% of the crop was setting bolls, which compares to 10% last week and 29% on average. Arizona has 60% of the crop setting bolls (41% average), with Texas at 13% (21% on average).

 

 

NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST: WARM AND WET FOR CORN BELT... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for July 21-25 calls for above-normal temps and precip for much of the Corn Belt, which traders view as "non-threatening" for pollinating corn. The exception is Nebraska and the Dakotas, which are expected to see above-normal temps and mostly normal precip, with a bubble of below-normal precip over far western Nebraska. Click here for related maps.

 

 

RAINFALL CHANCES FOR MIDWEST IMPROVE... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says the GFS (American) weather model for July 14-20 shows improved rainfall chances for the Corn Belt this week due to a weakening of the high pressure ridge. After a three-week period of drier-than-normal conditions for areas of northern Illinois and the western Corn Belt, Martell says crops would benefit from rains.

But Martell says weather models are not in total agreement for this week. The Medium Range forecast center (a division of the NWS) forecast for July 14-21 sees a more persistent ridge of high pressure, which would block meaningful precip from entering the Corn Belt. Click here for related maps.

 

 

STABENOW URGES HOUSE TO SEND FARM BILL SO CONFERENCE CAN OFFICIALLY START... While informal discussions are underway between the House and Senate on how to address differences between the two farm bills each chamber has passed, the House needs to send their version of the farm bill to the Senate so that the formal conference process can start, Senate Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said today. She says this must happen quickly as there are only roughly 24 legislative days between now and Sept. 30 when portions of the extended 2008 Farm Bill begin to expire.

Stabenow and others have been critical of the farm-policy only bill approved by the House since it has no nutrition title. But she also admitted the lack of a nutrition title did not mean nutrition programs would stop as nutrition policy is written in the farm bill with funding done through the appropriations process. Further, when asked if the House were to approve something along the lines of what is referred to as the Ryan budget plan on nutrition (around $130 billion in nutrition cuts), Stabenow said, "that would face bipartisan opposition in the Senate" and President Obama would not sign the bill.

Stabenow noted her opposition to the House bill, which would strike the 1938 and 1949 Acts as permanent farm law and replace them with the commodity title of the new farm bill, as she said it would take the pressure off getting a new bill. But she did not note that conservation and some other programs are not covered by permanent law as it currently stands.

Stabenow, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack and others who will try to goad the House GOP leaders into announcing conferees soon know full well that if conferees are announced too soon (way before a successful conclusion of a conference), under House rules members can offer specific instructions to the conference, and that is something GOP leaders do not want to occur in an already cumbersome and partisan process. Get more details.
 

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