Evening Report (VIP) -- July 22, 2013

July 22, 2013 10:37 AM
 

CORN CROP RATING DROPS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED... USDA rates 63% of the corn crop as "good" to "excellent," a drop of 3 percentage points from last week. Traders were anticipating a 1- to 2-percentage point decline. USDA now rates 11% of the crop "poor" to "very poor," up 2 percentage points from last week.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

3

8

26

46

17

Last week

3

6

25

49

17

Year-ago

21

24

29

23

3

As of Sunday, USDA says 43% of the corn crop was silking, which is up 27 percentage points from week-ago, but it is still 13 points behind the five-year average. Illinois is 64% silking (71% on average), Indiana is at 62% (60% on average), Iowa is at 18% (54% on average), Minnesota is at 19% (46% on average) and Nebraska is 50% silking (64% on average).

 

SOYBEAN CROP CONDITION MILDLY DECLINES... As of Sunday, USDA rates 64% of the soybean crop as "good" to "excellent," a 1-percentage-point decline from week-ago. USDA puts 8% of the crop in the "poor" to "very poor" categories, which is unchanged from last week's report.

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

6

28

51

13

Last week

2

6

27

52

13

Year-ago

13

22

34

27

4

USDA says 46% of the soybean crop is blooming, which is up 20 percentage points from week-ago, but still 13 points behind the five-year average. Illinois is at 50% blooming (56% on average), Indiana is at 56% (54% on average), Iowa is at 36% (70% on average), Minnesota is at 39% (61% on average) and Nebraska is at 65% (61% on average).

Pods are being set on 8% of the crop, compared to 19% on average. Pod-set in Illinois is at 11% (17% on average), Indiana is at 12% (14% on average), Iowa is at 2% (22% on average), Minnesota is at 2% (14% on average) and Nebraska is at 13% (15% on average).

 

SPRING WHEAT CROP DECLINES... USDA rates 68% of the spring wheat crop as "good" to "excellent," a decline of 2 percentage points from last week. Five percent of the crop is still rated "poor" to "very poor."

Spring Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

1

4

27

55

13

Last week

1

4

25

57

13

Year-ago

2

9

29

51

9

As of Sunday, 85% of the spring wheat crop was headed, which is now just three percentage points behind normal. In the top production state of North Dakota, 82% of the crop is headed compared to 88% on average.

 

WINTER WHEAT HARVEST THREE-QUARTERS COMPLETE... As of Sunday, 75% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was cut, which is one percentage point slower than the five-year average. Harvest is done in the Southern Plains, while rapid progress is being made in the Central Plains and through SRW country.

 

COTTON CROP CONDITION IMPROVES... USDA says 44% of the crop is rated as "good" to "excellent" as of Sunday, which is a 2-percentage-point increase from the previous week. Twenty-four percent of the crop is rated "poor" to "very poor," a 2-percentage-point decline from week-ago.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

10

14

32

34

10

Last week

10

16

32

32

10

Year-ago

5

13

35

37

10

As of Sunday, 77% of the cotton crop was squaring compared to 83% on average and 27% of the crop was setting bolls. Crop development in the top production state of Texas continues to run behind the average pace with 73% squaring (78% on average) and 18% setting bolls (31% on average).

 

COLD STORAGE REPORT: PORK STOCKS WELL BELOW EXPECTATIONS... USDA's tally of pork stocks in storage as of June 30 came in well below expectations at 564.9 million pounds. In fact, the figure was roughly 28 million lbs. lower than the record for the month, whereas traders had expected record-large pork stocks. The tally was around 61 million lbs. below the average pre-report guess. Pork stocks were down 14.3% from the end of May and 4.7% under year-ago.

Total beef stocks as of June 30 stood at 480.6 million lbs., which was 6.6 million lbs. more than the average pre-report guess. Beef stocks dropped 0.4% from month-ago, but were up 2.5% from year-ago.

Poultry stocks totaled 1.232 billion lbs. at the end of June. That was up 2.5% from the end of May and 2.9% more than year-ago.

 

USDA TO ACCEPT 1.7 MILLION ACRES UNDER CRP GENERAL SIGN-UP... USDA will accept 1.7 million acres offered under the 45th Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) general sign-up, Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack announced today. The department received nearly 28,000 offers on more than 1.9 million acres of land, demonstrating CRP's continuing appeal as one of our nation's most successful voluntary programs for soil, water and wildlife conservation. USDA has enrolled nearly 12 million acres in new CRP contracts since 2009. Currently, there are more than 26.9 million acres enrolled on 700,000 contracts. USDA also noted that so far this year, farmers and ranchers have offered more than 370,000 acres under Continuous CRP signup, a figure that is impressive given that the lack of a farm bill extension last fall meant that CRP enrollment only reopened this spring in May.

 

IOWA IS THE DRIEST MIDWEST STATE... The top U.S. corn and soybean production state of Iowa is also the driest this year, with most farms reporting less than 20% of average rainfall month-to-date, according to Meteorologist Gail Martell of martellcropprojections.com. The topsoil has grown very dry across Iowa, she explains, continuing, "it will take a heavy soaking rain to replenish parched fields -- one-half inch would not be enough."

Looking ahead, Martell says a weak Canadian cool front today will drop southward through the upper Midwest, but only light rainfall is predicted in Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota. "Another stronger Canadian cool front is predicted late in the week -- Friday-Saturday -- triggering heavier upper Midwest rains," she continues. "But producers are growing rather weary of wet forecasts that have not materialized," Martell says, pointing to disappointing Midwest showers over the weekend that left the vast majority of the western Corn Belt dry.

Martell says drought in the Midwest may be associated with an emerging La Nina signal. "Sea surface temperatures have chilled significantly in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean in the recent month, consistent with La Nina," she explains. The Climate Prediction Center is sticking with a "ENSO-neutral" forecast. But Martell says the dry weather pattern in July tells a different story. Get more weather highlights and maps.

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