Evening Report (VIP) -- July 29, 2013

July 29, 2013 10:35 AM
 

CORN CONDITION UNCHANGED... USDA reports the condition of the corn crop is unchanged from last week. While traders expected a one-percentage-point decline in crop rated "good" to "excellent" compared to last week, USDA kept this portion of the crop at 63%. USDA rates 26% of the crop "fair," with just 11% rated "poor" to "very poor."

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

3

8

26

46

17

Last week

3

8

26

46

17

Year-ago

23

25

28

21

3

 

USDA reports as of Sunday that 71% of the crop was silking, compared to 43% last week and 75% on average. This signals a large percentage of the crop is pollinating under non-stressful conditions given the recent cool down, as well as forecasts for more rains this week. Illinois has 85% silking (86% average); Indiana is at 82% (78% average); Iowa at 50% (77% average); Minnesota at 60% (71% average); Nebraska at 81% (84% average); and Ohio is at 87% (72% average).

Meanwhile, USDA reports 8% of the crop is in dough stage, compared to 35% last year and 17% on average.

 

 

SOYBEAN CROP POSTS MINOR DETERIORATION... USDA reports 63% of the U.S. soybean crop is rated "good" to "excellent," which is down one percentage point from last week. Traders expected no change in soybean crop ratings this week. USDA reports 28% of the crop is in "fair" shape, with just 9% rated "poor" to "very poor."

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

7

28

50

13

Last week

2

6

28

51

13

Year-ago

15

22

34

26

3

 

USDA reports 65% of the crop was blooming as of Sunday, up from 46% last week but behind the five-year average of 74%. Illinois is at 65% (72% average); Indiana at 72% (68% average); Iowa at 63% (83% average); Minnesota at 68% (77% average); Nebraska at 82% (78% average); and Ohio is at 74% (74% average).

Meanwhile, USDA reports 20% of the crop is setting pods, which compares to 8% last week and 34% on average. While August is traditionally the critical month for the crop as weather impacts pod fill, this process will continue well into September this year due to the delayed crop development.

 

 

MINOR DETERIORATION IN SPRING WHEAT CROP... USDA reports that 68% of the spring wheat crop is in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is unchanged from last week. However, there was a two-percentage-point shift from the "excellent" to "good" category this week to reflect minor deterioration in crop ratings. USDA rates 26% of the crop in "fair" shape, with 6% rated "poor" to "very poor," which is up one percentage point from last week.

Spring Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

4

26

57

11

Last week

1

4

27

55

13

Year-ago

2

9

26

51

12

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 94% of the crop was headed, compared to 85% last week and 95% on average. The Minnesota, South Dakota and Washington crops are 100% headed, with Idaho at 99%. Montana is at 90% and North Dakota is at 93%.

 

 

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN COTTON CONDITION RATINGS... USDA reports the condition of the cotton crop improved slightly from last week, with the portion of crop rated "good" to "excellent" increasing by one percentage point to 45%. USDA rates 33% of the crop in "fair" shape, with 22% rated "poor" to "very poor," a two-percentage-point improvement from last week.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

8

14

33

35

10

Last week

10

14

32

34

10

Year-ago

6

16

34

35

9

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 39% of the crop was setting bolls versus 27% last week and 56% on average. Arizona has 65% of the crop setting bolls (69% average), with Texas at 26% (46% average).

 

 

NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST REMAINS 'NON-THREATENING'... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for August 4-8 calls for below-normal temps across the Corn Belt, with above-normal precip expected across the western Belt along with southern Illinois and far southern Indiana. Below-normal precip is expected across Wisconsin, Michigan and far northern areas of Indiana and Ohio. Traders view the forecast as non-threatening for late pollinating corn and for developing soybeans. Click here for related maps.

 

 

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS WETTER AND COOLER... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says below-normal temps and waves of showers are expected across the Corn Belt this week. Martell says after La Nina seemed to be gaining strength over the past month, a cooling across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has resulted in the emergence of a modest El Nino, or wet signal, for the Midwest. Click here for related maps.

 

 

FSA TO RESUME MONTHLY CROP ACREAGE DATA RELEASES IN AUGUST... The annual release of crop acreage data from USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) will resume once again in August, with the initial data to be released on or around Aug. 15, according to contacts. The data will take on more significance for corn and soybeans this year with an elevated number of prevented planting or failed acreage reports expected in states like Iowa and Minnesota.

Contacts advise that generally, the data will be released three days after the Supply & Demand Report and will be released monthly until a final version is published in January. But the data may lag the usual pace given that farmers have until Aug. 2 to report acreage to FSA for 2013. Normally, the data is required to be provided to FSA by farmers by July 15, but the amount of planting problems seen this year prompted FSA to push that deadline back.

Data are reported in the following categories: planted; prevented planted; and failed. Breakdowns are typically published by crop and by county.

In addition, FSA acreage data is provided to the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) as another data component to supplement their survey data. The late reporting deadline is not expected to have an impact on the data availability relative to NASS, as contacts say typically the agency utilizes the certification data in compiling their October Crop Production Report.

 

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