Evening Report (VIP) -- June 10, 2013

June 10, 2013 09:48 AM
 

CORN PLANTING 95% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 95% of intended corn acres were planted, leaving around 4.87 million acres intended for corn unplanted. Illinois has 96% of its crop in the ground (98% on average); Indiana is at 98% (95% average); Iowa is at 92% (99% average); Minnesota at 90% (99% average); and Nebraska is done with planting. That means just over 1.1 million acres in Iowa that were intended for corn are still unplanted, around 488,000 acres are unplanted in Illinois, around 122,000 acres are unplanted in Indiana and around 900,000 acres are unplanted in Minnesota.

USDA reports 85% of the crop has emerged, which compares to 74% last week and 92% on average. Illinois has 89% of the crop up (92% on average); Indiana is at 90% (85% average); Iowa is at 81% (96% average); Minnesota is at 78% (95% average); and Nebraska has 91% emerged (97% average).

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

6

29

53

10

Last week

2

5

30

52

11

Year-ago

2

6

26

54

12

 

USDA reports the condition of the crop declined slightly from last week, with 10% rated "excellent" (11% last week); 53% "good" (52% last week); 29% "fair" (30% last week); 6% "poor" (5% last week) and 2% "very poor" (unchanged from last week).

 

 

SOYBEAN PLANTING 71% COMPLETE... As expected, USDA reports 71% of the nation's intended soybean acres were planted by Sunday, which compares to 57% last week and 84% on average. USDA reports 62% is planted in Illinois (80% on average); 87% in Indiana (79% average); 60% in Iowa (95% average); 72% in Minnesota (95% average); and 94% in Nebraska (94% average).

USDA reports just 48% of the crop has emerged, which compares to 31% last week and 67% on average. Illinois has 43% emerged (63% on average); Indiana is at 70% (62% average); Iowa is at 39% (83% average); Minnesota is at 38% (78% average); and Nebraska has 71% emerged (81% average). USDA will release its first soybean crop condition ratings of the season next week.

 

 

SPRING WHEAT PLANTING 87% COMPLETE... USDA reports 87% of the nation's intended spring wheat acres were planted by Sunday, which is a seven-percentage-point gain from last week, but still well below the five-year average of 96% on this date. Of most concern is that just 77% of intended North Dakota acres have been seeded, compared to 94% on average.

USDA reports that just 71% of the crop has emerged, which compares to 61% last week and 89% on average. Just 58% of the North Dakota crop has emerged (85% on average); with Montana at 70% (87% average); and Minnesota at 84% (94% on average).

Spring Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

5

31

52

10

Last week

4

4

28

53

11

Year-ago

1

3

21

59

16

 

The condition of the spring wheat crop deteriorated slightly, with 62% of the crop in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is down two percentage points from last week and compares to 75% of the crop in the top two categories last year at this time.

 

 

WINTER WHEAT HARVEST 5% COMPLETE... USDA reports 5% of the nation's winter wheat crop has been harvested, which compares to 37% last year at this time and 16% on average. Texas has 31% harvested (35% on average), with 8% harvested in Oklahoma (46% on average). Harvest has not yet begun in Kansas, compared to 11% on average.

Winter Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

23

19

27

26

5

Last week

24

19

25

26

6

Year-ago

5

12

30

40

13

 

USDA reports 82% of the crop was headed, compared to 73% last week and 86% on average. The condition of the crop declined slightly, with 31% rated in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is down one percentage point from last week.

 

 

COTTON PLANTING 88% COMPLETE... USDA reports that 88% of the nation's intended cotton acres were planted by Sunday, which represents just a six-percentage-point improvement from last week and lags the five-year average of 92% complete. USDA reports planting is complete in Arizona, California and Virginia, but is only 85% is the heavy-hitting state of Texas, compared to 90% on average.

USDA reports 6% of the crop is squaring versus 4% last week and 11% on average. The first crop condition ratings of the season reveal the crop is in worse shape than last year at this time. USDA rates 42% in "good" to "excellent" shape, compared to 51% last year.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

6

15

37

34

8

Year-ago

3

10

36

39

12

 

 

NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST: WET ACROSS CORN BELT... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for June 16-20 calls for above-normal precip to return to the Corn Belt. The heaviest precip is expected across the heart of the Corn Belt -- Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. Normal to above-normal temps are forecast for the Corn Belt during the period, with the hottest temps likely over southern and western areas. Click here for related maps.

 

 

TRADERS PREPARING FOR USDA'S JUNE CROP REPORTS... USDA will release its Supply & Demand and Crop Production Reports on Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. CT. Traders look for USDA to trim 2012-13 corn carryover by around 11 million bu. from last month, while old-crop soybean ending stocks are expected to be unchanged and old-crop wheat carryover is seen rising 3 million bu. from May.

2012-13 carryover

Avg.

Range

USDA May

2011-12

in billion bushels

Corn

0.748

0.700-0.789

0.759

0.989

Soybeans

0.125

0.119-0.130

0.125

0.169

Wheat

0.734

0.725-0.751

0.731

0.743

 

Due to ongoing planting delays, traders look for USDA to further lower its corn yield to account for at least part of the expected 256-million-bu. drop in 2013-14 carryover from last month to 1.758 billion bushels. New-crop soybean carryover is expected to rise by 8 million bu. from last month to 273 million bushels. Due to an expected drop in wheat production, traders look for USDA to trim 2013-14 wheat carryover by 36 million bu. from last month to 634 million bushels.

2013-14 carryover

Avg.

Range

May

in billion bushels

Corn

1.758

1.274-1.994

2.004

Soybeans

0.273

0.185-0.339

0.265

Wheat

0.634

0.501-0.686

0.670

 

Traders expect USDA to trim the size of the wheat crop, with all winter wheat production seen down 29 million bu. from last month to 1.457 billion bushels. Traders look for USDA to trim the size of the HRW and white winter wheat crops, but for the SRW wheat crop estimate to improve slightly.

Wheat Production

Avg.

Range

May

2012

in billion bushels

All wheat

2.026

1.872-2.082

2.057

2.269

All winter

1.457

1.401-1.503

1.486

1.645

HRW

0.743

0.676-0.789

0.768

1.004

SRW

0.506

0.492-0.517

0.501

0.420

White winter

0.208

0.200-0.217

0.217

0.222

 

 

MIDWEST FORECAST SLOW TO IMPROVE... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com describes the recent Midwest weather pattern as a "wave-train" of disturbances, which she says have been caused by a blocking pattern in the northern latitudes that have forced the jet stream southward.

While it's unusual for this blocking high to persist into June, Martell says the weather pattern has been slow to improve. "The new weekly forecast is still calling for generous rainfall in the Midwest. A short-wave disturbance would develop Tuesday night in Kansas, traveling east through the Corn Belt. The weekly rainfall forecast indicates another 1-2 inches of rainfall in the central Belt, locally more in Iowa and Illinois." Click here for related maps.

 

 

CHINA APPROVES MORE BRAZILIAN GMO SOYBEANS... China has approved the import of three additional GMO varieties of soybeans from Brazil, according to the Brazilian ag minister. As we reported in "First Thing Today," China approved the import of three GMO soybean varieties and one GMO corn strain from Argentina over the weekend.

 

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