Evening Report (VIP) -- June 24, 2013

June 24, 2013 10:37 AM
 

 

CORN CROP CONDITION IMPROVES AS EXPECTED... USDA reports the portion of the corn crop rated "excellent" improved by two percentage points from last week to 14% and the crop rated "good" declined by one percentage point to 51% to result in slight improvement from last week. USDA reports 8% of the crop is rated "poor" to "very poor," which is unchanged from last week.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

6

27

51

14

Last week

2

6

28

52

12

Year-ago

4

10

30

45

11

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 96% of the corn crop has emerged, compared to 92% last week and 99% on average. While all of the Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska and Ohio crops have emerged, just 93% of the Iowa crop and 90% of the Minnesota crop has emerged. In Iowa, this accounts for about 1 million intended corn acres that have not yet emerged.

 

 

SOYBEAN PLANTING 92% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 92% of the nation's soybean crop was planted, compared to 85% last week and 95% on average. This means about 6.17 million intended soybean acres have not been yet been planted at this late date. Illinois and Indiana have 96% planted (93% and 94%, respectively, on average), with Iowa at 90% planted (98% average). Minnesota is at 94% planted (100% average) with Nebraska and Ohio at 100% planted.

USDA reports that 81% of the crop has emerged, compared to 66% last week and 89% on average. Illinois is at 87% emerged (85% average); Indiana at 90% (86% average); Iowa at 75% (94% average); Minnesota at 81% (98% average); Nebraska at 95% (96% average); and Ohio is at 96% (92% average).

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

2

5

28

54

11

Last week

1

5

30

54

10

Year-ago

4

11

32

45

8

 

As expected, USDA reflected a one-percentage-point improvement in the portion of crop rated "good" to "excellent" from last week, with 65% of the crop in the top two categories. USDA reports 7% of the crop is rated "poor" to "very poor," which is a one-percentage-point increase from last week.

 

 

WINTER WHEAT HARVEST 20% COMPLETE... USDA reports that 20% of the winter wheat harvest was complete as of Sunday, compared to 11% last week and 37% on average. Texas harvest progressed by just five percentage points last week to 55% complete (69% on average), with Oklahoma improving by 15 percentage points to 55% complete (81% on average). Kansas has just gotten started with 8% cut as of Sunday versus 39% on average. According Kansas wheat harvest reports, harvest rapidly progressed over the weekend, which resulted in stepped-up harvest-related hedge pressure on wheat futures today.

 

 

SPRING WHEAT PLANTING FINALLY WRAPPING UP... USDA reports that 96% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, compared to 99% on average. But the problem spot of North Dakota still has nine percent of its intended acres unplanted at this late date versus 98% on average.

USDA reports 90% of the crop has emerged, with Montana at 98% (95% on average) and North Dakota at just 79%, compared to 74% last week and 96% on average.

Spring Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

1

4

25

59

11

Last week

1

4

27

59

9

Year-ago

1

3

19

61

16

 

Meanwhile, the condition of the spring wheat crop improved slightly from last week, with the portion of crop rated "good" to "excellent" up two percentage points to 70%. Just 5% of the crop is rated "poor" to "very poor."

 

 

COTTON CROP SHOWS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT... USDA reports the condition of the cotton crop improved slightly last week, with the "good" to "excellent" categories gaining one percentage point to 43%. The portion of crop rated "poor" to "very poor" gained four percentage points, though, which now accounts for 23% of the crop.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

6

17

34

35

8

Last week

6

13

39

34

8

Year-ago

5

11

34

40

10

 

USDA reports 23% of the crop is squaring, compared to 10% last week and 29% on average. The most advanced crop is in Alabama where 63% is squaring, with Texas at 19% versus 21% on average.

 

 

NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST: PRECIP OUTLOOK 'MIXED'... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for June 30-July 4 calls for cooler-than-normal conditions across the Corn Belt and a mix of precip. Below-normal precip is expected across the western Corn Belt, with above-normal precip forecast for southern Illinois and most of Indiana and Ohio. Normal precip is expected across northern and central Illinois. Click here for more.

 

 

ECONOMIST: BERNANKE'S MESSAGE 'GARBLED'... Dr. Vince Malanga, President of LaSalle Economics, Inc. and speaker for the upcoming Pro Farmer Leading Edge Conference, says when explaining recent economic activity and its impact on monetary policy last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a "garbled" and unclear message. While the Fed downgraded its near-term forecast for economic growth and inflation, it reflected better conditions for 2014. Malanga notes the Fed has consistently overestimated growth and inflation since the onset of the economic recovery.

"Regardless of the poor forecasting record but consistent with its forecast, the Fed Chairman signaled a continuation of its open ended bond-buying program with a possible slowing in the fall and termination by the middle of next year," notes Malanga. "The Chairman confused the matter even more by stating that the timing of any such scale down would remain data dependent. Conditions in the labor market remain at the forefront of this data dependency and the Chairman acknowledged that while there has been improvement, the labor market is not yet healthy. The Chairman also acknowledged that his other data metric -- namely inflation -- is below target but that policy wise it is to be ignored."

 

 

SUPREME COURT DISMISSES CHALLENGE TO E-15... The Supreme Court today left in place a federal appeals court ruling that dismissed a challenge by oil and food industry groups to EPA's decision to allow gasoline blends of up to 15% ethanol. The Renewable Fuels Association was pleased with the decisions, saying it ends a "long and drawn out petroleum industry effort to derail the commercialization of E15... With this decision, E15 can finally become a meaningful option for more Americans."

 

 

CLIMATE CHANGE EXECUTIVE ORDER AGENDA COMING... President Obama will roll out his second-term climate agenda Tuesday, a series of executive actions expected to include regulating emissions from existing power plants, among other provisions. His speech is expected to include a pledge to curb carbon emissions from existing power plants, a top priority for environmentalists.

His top climate adviser said last Wednesday that the plan would address energy efficiency, expanding clean energy on public lands, and using various "tools" -- including the Clean Air Act -- to address climate. Of note, Obama on Saturday said the country would need scientists to design new fuels and farmers to grow them. "We'll need engineers to devise new sources of energy, and businesses to make and sell them. We'll need workers to build the foundation for a clean energy economy," Obama said.

Power plants create roughly one-third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Coal, by far, accounts for the largest share of power-sector carbon emissions, EPA data shows. Obama is pressing ahead with executive-level actions at a time when major climate legislation is a nonstarter on Capitol Hill. But Republicans quickly pledged Saturday to use Obama's climate plan as a political weapon against Senate Democrats who may be vulnerable in 2014.

 

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