Evening Report (VIP) -- June 7, 2013

June 7, 2013 09:32 AM

NWS 6- TO 10-DAY OUTLOOK: WET FOR THE EASTERN CORN BELT... The National Weather Service (NWS) outlook for June 13-17 is a bit more favorable for fieldwork in Iowa and Minnesota, but North Dakota and the eastern Corn Belt could see additional delays. The forecast calls for above-normal precip over North Dakota, northern South Dakota and the entire eastern Corn Belt. Normal precip is expected for Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri eastern Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Normal temps are expected for the bulk of the region, though above-normal temps are likely over most of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and southern Illinois. This would help dry out saturated soils. See the maps.



NON-FARM PAYROLLS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN EXPECTED... The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today reported that non-farm employment increased by 175,000 jobs in May, which was slightly better than expectations for a 170,000 increase. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and retail trade. The rise was also in line with average growth of 172,000 jobs per month over the past 12 months.

The Bureau also revised its jobs data for the prior two months. It issued a 4,000 upside payrolls revision to its March employment data, to 142,000 jobs added. But the April non-farm payroll estimate was lowered by 16,000 to 149,000.

The unemployment rate ticked up from 7.5% to 7.6%, as more people sought work in May. The number of people in the labor force, which includes those looking for work, rose by 420,000 to 155.7 million, though the labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.4%.



CANADA, MEXICO SET TO RETALIATE ON COOL... As expected, Canada's government has developed a lengthy list of U.S. commodities that it may target in retaliation to the U.S. Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) rules, which Canadian Ag Minister Gerry Ritz says do not bring the U.S. into compliance with an earlier World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling. If the WTO approves, Canada will impose tariffs on U.S. beef, pork, live hogs and cattle, corn and other products. Mexico is also expected to retaliate, although the list of items may differ, according to Ritz.



HOW LONG CAN WATERLOGGED CORN, SOYBEANS SURVIVE?... Soil temperature has a major impact on how young plants respond to excessive water, according to Extension Agronomist Nathan Mueller from South Dakota State University. He explains, "Waterlogged conditions experienced by corn seed for two or more days is a long enough time to decrease final corn emergence and is more detrimental at soil temperatures in the 70s than the 50s." He says, generally speaking, young corn plants can survive for two to four days of flooded conditions.

Mueller says soybeans have a much greater tolerance for waterlogging and can last up to eight days given the right conditions, though of course this comes at the expense of yield potential. "Presence of waterlogged soils at any time and for any duration during the germination process in soybeans will reduce the final germination and emergence percentage. Even after waterlogged conditions are removed, researchers have found that seedling growth was reduced by more than 50% from 24 to 48 hours of flooding when temperatures were near 77°F," Mueller details. Get more details.



PF VIDEO: TIGHT OLD-CROP SUPPLIES IN FOCUS... Editor Chip Flory and Senior Market Analyst Brian Grete discuss how the tight old-crop situation is influencing action in the futures market as well as that of the cash market for corn and soybeans, before looking ahead to USDA's reports next week in this week's Pro Farmer Profit Briefing clip on AgDay TV. Watch it here.


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