Evening Report (VIP) -- March 27, 2013

June 27, 2013 09:42 AM
 

WILL NASS RESURVEY SOME STATES FOR ACREAGE CHANGES FOR AUGUST?... This spring’s weather that has kept planting of U.S. corn and soybeans at the slowest pace in years and has prompted questions as to whether the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) will do another special survey of plantings in key states where the delays have been significant. That answer is thus far undecided. The decision will depend in part on what NASS statisticians find as they analyze the data to be released tomorrow.

Also, while the sequester reductions do not prevent a resurvey, contacts advise any decision has to be made with the backdrop of the agency having a limited amount of funding due to the spending reductions. That means the June acreage data must present a convincing case to prompt the agency to undertake the extra survey work.

Even if a special survey is not done, NASS can still make a change in the August Crop Production Report, as the agency has noted in the June Acreage report in the past: "Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey." Learn more.

 

H&P REPORT TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY BIGGER HOG HERD... Traders look for USDA's Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report Friday afternoon to reflect slight expansion of the U.S. hog herd. While Kept for Breeding is expected to come in at 99.9%, Kept for Marketing is seen at 100.7% and All Hogs & Pigs are seen at 100.6% of year-ago. If traders' expectations for a March-May pig crop of 100.1% of year-ago is on target, the report would suggest a mild increase in slaughter numbers compared to year-ago for the remainder of the year.

Quarterly H&P Report Expectations

Avg. trade guess

Range

 

% of year-ago

All Hogs and Pigs

100.6

100.0-101.2

Kept for Breeding

99.9

99.6-100.3

Kept for Marketing

100.7

100.0-101.3

Mar-May pig crop

100.1

99.2-100.7

Mar-May pigs per litter

101.0

99.9-101.3

Mar-May farrowings

99.1

99.0-99.2

June-Aug farrowing int.

99.9

99.2-101.2

Sept-Nov farrowing int.

100.5

100.2-101.6

Hogs under 50 lbs.

100.6

99.2-101.4

Hogs 50 to 119 lbs.

100.5

100.1-101.6

Hogs 120-179

100.8

100.4-101.7

Hogs 180 and over

100.5

100.2-101.0

 

NWS 6-10 DAY: COOL START TO JULY FOR CORN BELT... The National Weather Service forecast for July 3 through 7 calls for cooler-than-normal conditions across the Corn Belt and a mix of precip. Traders view the precip forecast as mostly favorable, as it calls for much-needed precip in dry areas of the eastern Corn Belt, while below-normal precip is expected in the western Belt. Click here for related forecast maps.

 

DROUGHT REMOVED FROM IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA; BUT EXPANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS... This week's National Drought Monitor showed mixed results for key growing areas, as drought was removed from western Iowa and southwest Minnesota, but expanded across the Southern Plains. Drought also improved across the Northern Plains, but more rain is needed to erase drought across western South Dakota. For the Southern Plains, the monitor notes that warmer temps and a lack of widespread rains resulted an increase in the intensity of drought. Click here for related maps.

 

TOP GOP LEADERS CONSIDER SPLITTING FARM BILL UP... On Wednesday we revealed that House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) favored a farm bill be just that -- farm program language, which accounts for around 20% of the baseline funding -- and another separate route for the other 80%, food and nutrition spending, namely food stamps/SNAP. Today comes word that House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) is also considering the possible maneuver, despite repeated warnings from House Ag Committee Chairman Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) that neither bill could pass on its own.

What no one is mentioning at the moment is how any such solo farm bill would impact a "farm bill" House-Senate conference. The Senate bill includes food stamp funding, which the bill reduces by only $4 billion over 10 years, far below the $20.5 billion contained in the defeated House farm bill. But history shows conferees can be very creative and that a deal could be brokered between the two parties to put food and nutrition spending (and an agreed-on budget cut for food stamps) in a final farm bill conference report. Learn more.

 

IMMIGRATION REFORM VOTES IMMINENT IN THE SENATE... The Senate voted today to end debate on immigration reform legislation, setting the bill up for a final vote later today. The bill is expected to pass, but comprehensive immigration reform still has a long path ahead of it. The Republican-controlled House does not plan to take up the Senate's bill and many House Republicans oppose granting the nearly 11 million illegal immigrants provisional legal status.

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