Evening Report (VIP) -- May 20, 2013

May 20, 2013 09:33 AM

CORN PLANTING 71% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 71% of the corn crop was planted, which means producers were able to seed 43% of intended acres last week. This nearly catches the corn planting pace to the five-year average of 79% complete. Illinois has now 74% planted (77% on average); Iowa is at 71% (92% on average); Indiana is at 64% (65% on average); Minnesota is at 70% (84% on average); and Nebraska is at 84% (92% on average).

Warmer temps across the Corn Belt will help with emergence this week, which is running behind normal at 19%, compared the five-year average of 46%. Illinois has 16% of the crop up (52% on average); Iowa is at 13% (58% on average); Indiana is at 20% (44% on average); Minnesota is at 8% (41% on average); and Nebraska is 26% emerged (49% on average).



SOYBEAN PLANTING 24% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 24% of the soybean crop was planted, compared to 6% last week and 42% on average. Illinois has 19% planted (35% on average); Iowa is at 16% (59% on average); Indiana is at 30% (36% on average); Minnesota is at 23% (51% on average); and Nebraska is 33% planted (58% on average). USDA reports just 3% of the crop has emerged, compared to 32% last year at this time and 14% on average. Warm temps this week should aid in crop emergence.



WINTER WHEAT CROP CONDITION DECLINES SLIGHTLY... USDA reports the condition of the winter wheat crop declined slightly from last week, with 4% rated "excellent," which is a one-percentage-point drop from last week. USDA rates 31% of the crop in "good" to "excellent" shape, compared to 58% last year. USDA rates 41% in "poor" to "very poor" shape, compared to just 14% last year at this time.

Winter Wheat

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As of Sunday, USDA reports 43% of the winter wheat crop was headed, compared to 29% last week and 62% on average. Kansas has 41% headed (74% on average); Oklahoma is at 79% (98% on average); and Texas is at 70% (92% on average). Traders believe the delayed maturity of this year's crop means there's is more potential for the crop to add some yield potential if weather conditions improve.



SPRING WHEAT PLANTING 67% COMPLETE... USDA reports 67% of the nation's spring wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, compared to 43% last week and 76% on average. Planting is complete in Washington and will wrap up soon in Idaho and South Dakota, but North Dakota has just half of the crop seeded, compared to 67% on average. USDA reports 22% of the crop has emerged, compared to 10% last week and 49% on average to signal the crop is about two weeks behind in development.



COTTON PLANTING 39% COMPLETE... USDA reports 39% of the cotton crop was planted as of Sunday, compared to 23% last week and 52% on average. Texas has 29% planted (42% on average) and Georgia is 46% done (52% on average). The slower-than-usual planting pace has traders concerned not all acres will be seeded due to ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest.



NWS 6-10 DAY: RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIP... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for May 26-30 calls for a return to above-normal precip across the Upper Midwest, most of Iowa and northern regions of the eastern Corn Belt. Nebraska and the southern areas of the eastern Corn Belt are expected to see normal precip. A return to wetter conditions after heavy rains moved across areas of the central Corn Belt overnight would raise concerns about the potential yield impacts of late-planted corn and could result in some acres being switched to soybeans in June. Click here to view the forecast maps.



PEDV POSES NO PUBLIC HEALTH THREAT... The presence of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) was confirmed in the U.S. on May 17, through testing at USDA's National Veterinary Services Laboratory. This is not a regulatory/reportable disease or a trade-restricting disease, but the market still is keeping an eye on the situation for potential supply and demand impacts. Click here for a complete fact sheet on PEDV from Iowa State University's Iowa Pork Industry Center.



PELOSI'S SUPPORT KEY TO DEMOCRATS' VOTE ON HOUSE FARM BILL... House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will support moving the House farm bill forward, Agriculture Committee ranking member Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) said Friday. "Leader Pelosi is behind us. I’ve talked to her, and she will be supporting us," he said during comments to reporters. But Pelosi's office on Friday said that the minority leader supports moving forward on a farm bill, but has not weighed in on the substance of the Agriculture Committee bill.

Key to the apparent mid-June House farm bill debate, veteran farm bill watchers advise, is how many Democratic members reject the proposed $20.5 billion cuts in food stamp (SNAP) funding from the budget baseline, and how many Republicans will bolt from the measure because they think the funding cut is too low. The key to holding Democratic members in line appears to be looking ahead to a likely House-Senate conference to reconcile differences between the two difference farm bill approaches. The Senate farm bill has just $4 billion in food stamp cuts. The key in likely conference will be which lawmakers are selected. A conference is expected to be chaired by House Ag Chairman Frank Lucas (R-Okla.). Get more details.


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