Evening Report (VIP) -- May 28, 2013

May 28, 2013 10:29 AM


CORN PLANTING 86% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 86% of the nation's corn crop has been planted, which is in line with traders' expectations. This compares to 71% last week, 99% last year and 90% on average. Of most concern is that 15% of the Iowa crop remains unplanted, with 11% unplanted in Illinois, 14% unplanted in Indiana and 18% unplanted in Minnesota. In all, the report reflects that 13.6 million intended corn acres are still unplanted at the end of May.

USDA reports 54% of the corn crop has emerged, compared to 19% last week, 89% last year and 67% on average. Illinois has 68% emerged, (70% on average); Iowa is at 54% (81% on average); Indiana is at 56% (59% on average); Minnesota is 40% emerged (67% on average) and Nebraska is 61% emerged (75% on average).

USDA will release its first corn crop condition ratings of the spring next week.



SOYBEAN PLANTING 44% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 44% of the nation's soybean crop was planted, which is two percentage points higher than traders' expectations. This compares to 24% last week, 87% last year and 61% on average. Illinois has 40% planted (53% on average); Iowa is at 40% (83% on average); Indiana is at 60% (49% on average); Minnesota is at 42% (76% on average); and Nebraska is at 63% (79% on average).

Meanwhile, USDA reports just 14% of the crop has emerged, which compares to 3% last week, 57% last year and 30% on average.



WINTER WHEAT CONDITION DECLINES SLIGHTLY... The condition of the winter wheat crop declined slightly from last week, with 31% rated in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is steady with last week. But USDA reports 42% is rated "poor" to "very poor," which is a one-percentage-point increase from last week.

Winter Wheat

very poor





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USDA reports 60% of the crop has headed, which compares to 43% last week, 85% last year and 72% on average. Kansas has 74% headed (91% on average); Oklahoma is at 93% (99% on average); and Texas is at 79% (96% on average).



SPRING WHEAT PLANTING 79% COMPLETE... As of Sunday, 79% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was planted, up from 67% last week but behind 100% last year at this time and the five-year avearge of 86%. North Dakota is 62% planted compared to the five-year average of 81% on this date.

Spring wheat emergence stands at 42%, up 20 percentage points from last week but well behind 94% last year at this time and 66% on average.



COTTON PLANTING 59% COMPLETE... USDA reports that 59% of the nation's intended cotton acres were planted by Sunday, which is a twenty-percentage-point increase from the previous week but is still ten percentage points behind the five-year average. The heavy-hitting state of Texas has 49% planted (60% on average).



NWS 6-10 DAY: WET ACROSS WESTERN CORN BELT... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for June 3-7 calls for above-normal precip across the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota, with normal to below-normal precip expected in the eastern Corn Belt. Above-normal temps are forecast across Iowa eastward, with normal to below-normal temps expected in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Click here for related maps.



HEAVY RAINS OVER HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOAK MIDWEST... Waves of strong thunderstorms developed across the Midwest over the Memorial Day weekend, resulting in localized flooding and ponding. Traders reacted to the heavy rains with strong gains as it raises concerns about planting delays.

Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says excessive wetness is the most pronounced in the western Corn Belt and Illinois and more rains are in the five-day outlook. "Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected to continue this week in the Midwest, fueled by a moist air stream from the Gulf of Mexico. Iowa has a chance for showers virtually every day in the upcoming week, above a 65% risk," she says. "The atmosphere would be unstable and ripe for showers. Northern Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Missouri also have an elevated risk of showers most days this week." Click here for related maps.



BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN TOO DRY ACROSS GREAT PLAINS... While soils are saturated across the bulk of the Corn Belt, the Great Plains has grown steadily drier this spring, says Martell. Rainfall since March 1 has been 25% below average, but 35% below normal in May, as wheat heading and grain filling advanced, she notes. However, there are rain chances over eastern areas of the HRW Wheat Belt this week.



CONSULTANT ISSUES INITIAL 2013 CROP ESTIMATES... Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has released his first 2013 U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates, with this reminder: "The maximum estimate is what I think could occur if we have an ideal growing season. The minimum estimate is what I think could occur if the crops only receive half the normal rainfall during the growing season. All these estimates will be adjusted on a weekly basis as we move through the growing season."

Dr. Cordonnier's corn estimate is based on expectations that 1 million acres will not be seeded to corn, but he says if rain delays continue into next week, as much as 2 million to 3 million corn acres may not be planted. For soybeans, he expects two-thirds of the unplanted corn acres to be planted to soybeans. "Therefore, I am going to add 666,000 acres to the 77.126 million acres reported in the March Prospective Plantings Report for a total soybean planted acreage of 77.79 million acres," he says.

U.S. 2013 crop estimates


in billion bushels

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