Evening Report (VIP) -- November 13, 2012

November 13, 2012 08:55 AM
 

WINTER WHEAT CONDITION DECLINES... USDA reports 22% of the winter wheat crop is rated "poor" to "very poor" compared to 19% last week and 14% last year at this time. USDA rates 36% of the crop "good" to "excellent" compared to 39% last week and 50% last year. Without rain this week, the condition of the crop will continue to decline, as drought has worsened recently in areas of the Central and Southern Plains.

Winter Wheat

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

5

17

42

32

4

Last week

5

14

42

35

4

Year-ago

5

9

36

43

7

 

USDA reports 79% of the winter wheat crop has emerged as of Sunday compared to 73% last week and 81% on average. Kansas is 92% emerged (87% on average); Oklahoma is at 82% (83% on average); and Texas is at 74% (68% on average).

 

COTTON HARVEST 75% COMPLETE... USDA reports 75% of the cotton crop has been harvested compared to 64% last week and 68% on average. Louisiana is done with harvest, with Arkansas at 99% complete and Mississippi at 97% harvested. Next is Tennessee at 92% and California at 87%. Texas has 71% harvested, which is well ahead of the five-year average of 54% for this date.

 

 

SOYBEAN PLANTING IN BRAZIL CROSSES HALFWAY POINT... South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says between 55% and 58% of Brazil's soybean crop has been planted thanks to improved weather conditions that have encouraged producers to return to their fields. This is still around ten percentage points behind last year's pace, but is about a 13 percentage point improvement from the previous week. Additionally, he says recent rains have encouraged producers to replant fields that had poor germination.

Dr. Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean crop estimate unchanged at 80 MMT. "The crop has gotten off to a somewhat problematic start, but the weather improved this past week in the prior dry areas of central Brazil," he says, noting that later-planted soybeans could still achieve an acceptable yield if the weather cooperates.

 

 

FIRST CASES OF SOYBEAN RUST REPORTED IN BRAZIL... Dr. Cordonnier reports two cases of soybean rust have been reported -- in Mato Grosso and Santa Catarina Both cases were discovered in volunteer soybeans growing along the roadside. "If the disease is present on volunteer soybeans,. it's only a matter of time before it moves into newly planted soybeans," he says. "Drier-than-normal weather during October probably slowed the spread of the spores, but now that the rainfall has picked up, it will make it easier for the spores to spread out across the countryside. It's not a good sign that the disease has already been confirmed during early November"

 

 

DRIER CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA ALLOW FOR SOME PLANTING... Dr. Cordonnier says Argentine producers saw a small window of opportunity to plant corn last week. Nationwide, corn planting is now about 45% complete, still 14 percentage points behind last year's pace. "Even though it looks like the near-term weather forecast is favorable, planting progress will probably remain slow for several more weeks because farmers do not like to plant corn during November as the crop would pollinate during the hottest time of the year," he says. "If weather permits, the planting of the corn crop will be completed by early December."

Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentine corn estimate unchanged at 22.5 MMT, saying there is greater downside risk for the crop than upside potential.

Meanwhile, Dr. Cordonnier says soybean planting in Argentina is still in the initial stages. He left his estimate of the crop unchanged at 56 MMT, saying weather will determine whether he alters his projection in the coming weeks.

 

 

MORE DEFINITE HOUSE FARM BILL TIMELINE BY WEEK'S END... We should know by the end of the week whether House GOP leaders will either call for a multiday House floor debate on the pending House farm bill, whether they will wrap a behind-closed-door farm bill into whatever budget package comes out of the lame-duck session, or if the issue will be punted to 2013. If it is punted to 2013, there could be a new ranking member of the Senate Ag Committee -- Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), who favors the House safety net proposal that gives farmers a choice between revenue assurance or a target/reference price option.

 

 

EPA SAYS DECISION IS NEAR ON ETHANOL MANDATE... A spokeswoman for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today told reporters the agency will have a decision soon on whether to waive the renewable fuels standard. "EPA is completing its review and analysis of the RFS waiver requests and the agency plans to reach a decision shortly," an agency spokeswoman said. Today was the "deadline" for a decision.

 

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