Evening Report (VIP) -- November 18, 2013

November 18, 2013 09:27 AM

WINTER WHEAT CONDITION DECLINES... USDA reports the condition of the winter wheat crop declined from last week, which should help to bring some support to the market in overnight trade, as traders looked for further crop improvement. USDA reports 63% of the crop is rated "good" to "excellent," which compares to 65% last week. But the crop is still rated well above year-ago levels, when just 34% was rated in top shape.

Winter Wheat

very poor





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USDA reports 89% of the crop was emerged as of Sunday, which compares to 84% last week and 85% on average. Kansas has 96% up (91% average), with Oklahoma at 95% (89%) and Texas at 79% (74%).


CORN HARVEST 91% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 91% of the nation's corn crop had been harvested, which compares to 84% last week and the five-year average of 86%. Illinois is at 95% complete (88% average); Indiana 92% (89%); Iowa 93% (87%); Minnesota 94% (86%); Nebraska 91% (83%); Ohio 87% (80%); and South Dakota is at 88% (78%). With harvest winding down, the bulk of hedge-related pressure should be complete.


SOYBEAN HARVEST 95% COMPLETE... USDA reports 95% of the nation's soybean crop was harvested as of Sunday, which is a four-percentage point gain from the previous week and is one percentage point behind the five-year average. Illinois is 98% complete (98% average); Indiana 97% (98%); Iowa 99% (99%); Minnesota 99% (99%); Nebraska 100%; and South Dakota 100% (99%).


COTTON HARVEST 68% COMPLETE... USDA reports 68% of the nation's cotton harvest was complete as of Sunday, which compares to 56% last week and 75% on average Arizona is 55% complete (60% on average), Georgia 62% (79%) and Texas 60% (67%).


REPORTS: CHINA REJECTS U.S. CORN SHIPMENT... China rejected a cargo of U.S. corn because it contained a genetically modified variety that is not approved for import, according to an unidentified trade source. The shipment reportedly contained Syngenta Ag's Agrisure Viptera corn, which is widely grown across the U.S., so traces of the unapproved variety may have been mixed in with approved strains. Trade sources indicate China is expected to approve this variety later this year or in the year-ahead. This variety is approved by a number of other countries, including Japan, the European Union and Mexico. Nevertheless, the corn market extended losses in reaction to the news.


CATERPILLAR INFESTATION PROMPTS STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARATION IN MATO GROSSO... Brazil's ag ministry declared a state of emergency in the leading soy producing state of Mato Grosso as well as Bahia today due to the infestations of the Helicoverpa caterpillar -- commonly known as the corn earworm. We have reported that crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has been increasingly concerned about production costs in Brazil this year due this pest.


CONCERNS RISING ABOUT SAFRINHA SOYBEANS IN BRAZIL... Dr. Cordonnier says growing talk that producers in Mato Grosso might plant a second crop of soybeans in January and February (known as a safrinha crop) after harvest of regular-season soybeans is raising concern about an increased amount of soybean rust or corn earworms, which would do economic harm to the state.

Dr. Cordonnier says the idea is being floated about starting the soybean-free period earlier this year, which would essential eliminate safrinha soybeans. But he doesn't expect rules to be in place in time to impact 2013-14 acreage. Click here for more.


BEEF EXPORTS BRIGHT SPOT IN SEPTEMBER, PORK EXPORTS SOFTEN... According to USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), U.S. beef exports rose nearly 5% in terms of volume in September from the previous month, while pork exports were down 9% due to a downturn in sales to Japan and continued restrictions in Russia.

Due to strengthening beef sales to Japan, Hong Kong and Mexico, U.S. beef exports in September were lifted 1% above the year-to-date pace compared to the same period last year. Click here for more details.


RUSSIAN GRAIN EXPORTS MOUNT... Russian grain exports between July 1 and Nov. 13 have climbed to 12.49 MMT, which is a 13.3% increase over last year, a federal statistics service reports. Thus far in November, grain exports have totaled 1.11 MMT, including 806,000 MT of wheat. Russia's ag ministry expects 2013 ag exports to climb to between 88 MMT and 90 MMT, which would be a sharp increase from 71.1 MMT in 2012.

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