Evening Report (VIP) -- November 19, 2012

November 19, 2012 09:21 AM

WINTER WHEAT CONDITION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE... The condition of the winter wheat crop continues to decline, with the portion of crop rated "good" down two percentage points and the "poor" category up two points from last week. USDA now rates 24% of the crop in "poor" to "very poor" shape compared to 16% last year at this time.

Winter Wheat

very poor





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USDA reports 84% of the winter wheat crop has now emerged compared to 79% last week and 86% on average. Kansas has 95% up (equal to average); Oklahoma is at 86% (88% on average); and Texas is at 79% (72% on average). In the SRW wheat belt, USDA reports Illinois is 87% emerged (equal to average); Indiana is 93% (87% on average); Missouri is 80% (71% on average) and Ohio is at 90% (equal to average).



COTTON HARVEST 84% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday 84% of the nation's cotton crop was harvested compared to 75% last week and 77% on average. Missouri has 95% harvested (94% on average); Alabama is at 90% (81% on average); and Texas is at 80% (65% on average). Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee are at least 98% harvested.



MATO GROSSO WET, PARANA DRY... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, are off to a great start thanks to widespread rains so far this month. But Parana, in southern Brazil, has largely missed out on much-needed rains, which has spurred a serious drought.

Martell says a six- to eight-inch soil moisture deficit has built up over the past three months in western Parana, though there is hope for relief as scattered, heavy rains are forecast this week.

Meanwhile, Martell says after a period of sunny and dry conditions in Argentina that have helped dry soils after extremely heavy rainfall in October, another system is expected to bring up to 2.5 inches of rain later this week to push producers back out of fields.



IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR 2013-14 UKRAINE CROPS... USDA's Foreign Ag Service says planting of 2013-14 winter grains in Ukraine is nearly complete, with seedings expected to be up slightly from last year. The report states that overall, conditions for the country's winter grains is much better than last year.

"Low precipitation in September and early October enabled the fall sowing of 2013-14 winter grains to proceed at a rapid pace, although the dryness hampered emergence and establishment in some areas. Conditions in most areas improved with the arrival of beneficial rain in October, but southeastern Ukraine remained persistently dry," states FAS, adding that conditions improved by early November.



HOUSE PASSES RUSSIA PNTR... On Friday, the House passed legislation granting Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with Russia by a wide margin. The bill ended Soviet-era trade restrictions and included ag tariff and sanitary provisions that should enable American companies and producers to to receive the same economic benefits in Russian markets that other World Trade Organization members enjoy. Senate leaders have indicated they will consider the measure in a prompt manner, but both chambers of Congress are out on recess the rest of this week. The Obama administration has expressed support for the measure. The legislation is expected to boost U.S. sales of beef, pork and poultry.


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