Evening Report (VIP) -- November 26, 2012

November 26, 2012 08:44 AM

WINTER WHEAT CONDITION DROPS AGAIN... In its last crop condition ratings of the year, USDA reports the condition of the winter wheat crop declined again. USDA now rates 33% of the crop in "good" to "excellent" shape, 41% "fair" and 26% in "poor" to "very poor" shape. The condition of the crop is well below year-ago levels, when 52% was rated "good" to "excellent" and just 13% was in "poor" to "very poor" shape.

Winter Wheat

very poor





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USDA reports as of Sunday that 88% of the winter wheat crop was emerged compared to 84% last week and 90% on average. Kansas has 97% up (98% on average); Oklahoma is at 89% (93% on average); and Texas is at 85% emerged (78% on average).



COTTON HARVEST 89% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 89% of the cotton crop was harvested compared to 84% last week and 85% on average. Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi are done, with Tennessee at 99%, California at 98%, Missouri at 97%, Alabama at 95% and Virginia at 94%. Texas has 87% of its cotton crop harvested compared to 76% on average.



MARTELL: SOUTHERN PLAINS FORECAST DRY... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says drought continues to plague the HRW wheat belt, as rainfall was virtually non-existent last week and there's little to no meaningful rain in the near-term forecast. Martell says a ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the U.S. heartland, causing a stable atmosphere and warming temps this week. Click here for related maps.

The latest National Weather Service 6- to 10-day forecast calls for above-normal conditions across the bulk of the country Dec. 2-6, with below-normal precip expected throughout the Central and Southern Plains, as well as much of the western Corn Belt and the southern half of Illinois. Click here for related maps.



WEATHER EXTREMES RETURN TO SOUTH AMERICA... Martell says Argentina was hit with another round of heavy rains last week that ended a three-week period of warm and sunny conditions, while Parana, Brazil, has seen worsening drought conditions. She notes that while October weather was beneficial in Parana, November has featured dry conditions.

Meanwhile, Martell says further north in Mato Grosso, Brazil, favorable conditions have continued through November to improve crop prospects there.



WHEAT HARVEST IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL A DISAPPOINTMENT... South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says farmers in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil are in the midst of a disappointing wheat harvest. He says early yield reports are on average 23% lower than initial estimates. Additionally, he says the quality of the crop is also disappointing due to a variety of weather conditions that hit the crop this growing season.

Dr. Cordonnier says Brazil only grows about half of its wheat needs, with the other half coming from Argentina. "This year though, the wheat crop in Argentina is also disappointing and there are reports that Brazilian millers have already purchased wheat from Germany to fill the void. The high-quality German wheat will be blended with the lower quality Brazilian wheat in order to meet the minimum standards for milling wheat," he says.


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