Evening Report (VIP) -- November 4, 2013

November 4, 2013 08:39 AM

CORN HARVEST NEARS THREE-QUARTERS COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 73% of the nation's corn crop was harvested -- a 14-percentage-point gain from last week. This compares to 95% last year and 71% on average. Traders fully expected harvest to catch up to the average pace.

Illinois has 83% harvested (76% on average); Indiana 74% (72%); Iowa 75% (71%); Minnesota 73% (72%); Nebraska 71% (66%); Ohio 64% (58%); and South Dakota 63% (65%). With harvest nearing three-quarters complete, seasonal pressure on the market should ease. Traders continue to note better-than-expected yields as a reason behind the price slide even though typical hedge-related pressure from commercials has been limited.



SOYBEAN HARVEST 86% COMPLETE... As of Sunday, USDA reports 86% of the nation's crop was harvested, compared to 77% last week and 85% on average. Last year at this time, 92% of the crop was harvested. Illinois is at 92% (85% on average); Indiana 88% (87%); Iowa 95% (91%); Minnesota 96% (92%); Nebraska 97% (93%); Ohio 91% (85%); and South Dakota 92% (90%). With harvest is its final stages, reports of better-than-expected yields will become less of a market factor and focus should return to demand.



WINTER WHEAT CONDITION IMPROVES... USDA reports the condition of the winter wheat crop improved over the past week, with 63% of the crop rated in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is up from 61% last week. This compares to just 39% rated in the top two categories last year at this time. USDA says 31% is rated "fair" (35% last week), with 6% in "poor" to "very poor" shape, compared to 4% last week and 19% a year-ago.

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As of Sunday, 91% of the crop was planted, which is one percentage point ahead of the five-year average. Kansas has 96% planted (94% on average), with Oklahoma at 95% (92%) and Texas at 84% (83%). USDA reports 78% of the crop has emerged, compared to 65% last week and 73% on average. Kansas has 86% up (81% on average), with Oklahoma at 84% (77% on average) and Texas at 69% (62%).



COTTON HARVEST 43% COMPLETE... USDA reports that 43% of the nation's cotton crop was harvested as of Sunday, which is a just a nine-percentage-point gain from last week and compares to 54% on average. Arizona has 35% harvested (45% on average), with Texas at 37% (44%). USDA reports the condition of the crop declined slightly, with 43% of the crop rated in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is one percentage point below last week.



NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST WARMER/DRIER FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for November 10-14 calls for above-normal temps across the Central and Southern Plains, as well as much of the western Corn Belt. Meanwhile, wetter conditions are expected to slow harvest across the Corn Belt, but drier conditions are expected to set into western Kansas and the remainder of the Southern Plains. Click here for related images.



CARGILL BEGINS PRODUCTION AT WET MILL PLANT IN IOWA... Cargill announced today it has begun operations at its Fort Dodge, Iowa, wet mill ethanol facility. The company says when full production capacity is reached, the plant will consume 150,000 bu. of corn per day.


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