Evening Report (VIP) -- November 8, 2012

November 8, 2012 08:57 AM
 

 

TRADERS DON'T EXPECT MAJOR CHANGES IN NOVEMBER CROP REPORTS... Traders look for the USDA's Crop Production Report to show a slight drop in the size of the corn crop from last month, while the soybean crop is expected to reflect "better-than-expected" yields and come in slightly bigger than October. The Supply & Demand Report is expected to reflect a slower usage pace, with 2012-13 carryover expected up around 16 mil. bu. from last month to 635 mil. bushels. Traders look for soybean carryover to rise by just 3 mil. bu. from last month to 133 mil. bu., while wheat carryover is expected to rise by around 12 mil. bu. from last month to 666 mil. bushels.

 

2012-13 carryover

Avg.

Range

USDA Oct.

2011-12

in billion bushels

Corn

0.635

0.487-0.750

0.619

0.988

Soybeans

0.133

0.115-0.175

0.130

0.169

Wheat

0.666

0.625-0.728

0.654

0.743

Cotton (mil. bales)

5.5

4.0-6.1

5.6

3.4

 

Crop Production

Avg.

Range

Oct.

2011

in billion bushels

Corn

10.629

10.100-10.881

10.706

12.358

Soybeans

2.891

2.720-2.959

2.860

3.094

Cotton (mil. bales)

17.3

17.0-17.5

17.3

15.6

 

ENSO-NEUTRAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH WINTER... The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says to expect ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter. During October, borderline ENSO-neutral to weak El Nino conditions were observed, but NOAA says the development of El Nino -- or even La Nina -- cannot be ruled out during the next few months. Click here for more.

 

DROUGHT MONITOR REFLECTS STRONGHOLD OF DROUGHT ACROSS PLAINS... The National Drought Monitor reflects worsening drought conditions in the Central and Southern Plains at a critical time for the winter wheat crop. A one-category downgrade was seen in east-central Kansas after three straight weeks of minimal precip. It notes no changes were made for western Kansas and most of Nebraska, as much of it is already in "extreme" to "exceptional" drought -- leaving little room for further downgrades.

However, Superstorm Sandy brought relief to some areas of the eastern Corn Belt, with one-category improvements seen in lower Michigan and parts of the lower Ohio River Valley. Click here for more, as well as related maps.

 

JAPAN TO RELAX BEEF IMPORT THRESHOLDS... Japan’s ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has decided to relax the cattle age threshold for beef imports from 20 months or younger to 30 months for the U.S., Canada, France and the Netherlands. The decision came after the country’s Food Safety Commission mad cow export panel recommended relaxing the age threshold Oct. 22. The ministry is now gearing up to implement the new policy by year’s end. Get more details.

 

BOEHNER: GOP OPEN TO NEW TAX REVENUE VIA DEAL... As Tuesday's election resulted in little change to the makeup of the House or Senate, there are concerns an inability to compromise and reach across party lines will again render Congress unable to accomplish anything or address the fiscal cliff. Americans are hopeful comments from House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) indicating the GOP may be open to a new tax revenue via a deal, possibly one similar to the agreement he and President Obama nearly struck last year to reduce the deficit by up to $4 trillion over 10 years, are more than just words.

Boehner called for a "down payment" on deficit reduction during the lame-duck session and said the GOP would accept "new revenue," but not higher tax rates, in a broader agreement next year that would include a comprehensive overhaul of the tax system and address growth entitlements. In prepared marks he called for Obama to lead and said to the president "we want you to succeed." He also urged lawmakers to "challenge ourselves to find the common ground that has eluded us."

But this was a break from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) comments hours earlier that he did not want to "kick the can" into 2013. Read more remarks online.

 

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