Evening Report (VIP) -- October 15, 2012

October 15, 2012 09:37 AM

CORN HARVEST REMAINS RECORD QUICK... Rains over the weekend slowed harvest activity, but corn harvest was still 79% complete as of Sunday, according to USDA. That's an increase of 10 points from last week and is a whopping 41 percentage points ahead of normal. Iowa has 87% harvested (30% on average); Illinois is also 87% done (53% on average); Indiana is at 61% (43% on average); Minnesota is 90% complete (27% on average); and Nebraska is 80% done (26% on average). Ohio is "only" 31% harvested, but that's still ahead of the average pace of 24% on this date.



SOYBEAN HARVEST RAPIDLY ADVANCING... Producers have harvested 71% of the soybean crop as of Sunday, according to USDA data. That's an increase of 13 percentage points from both the previous week and the five-year average. Iowa has 93% harvested (69% on average), Illinois is at 69% (60% on average), Minnesota is at 99% (73% on average) and Nebraska is at 86% (65% on average). Indiana and Ohio are lagging the normal pace with 51% and 38% harvested (57% and 49% on average), respectively.



COTTON HARVEST RUNNING BEHIND NORMAL... As of Sunday, USDA reports cotton harvest was 28% complete, which is seven percentage points more than the previous week, but two points behind average. Texas has 24% of the crop harvested (23% on average), while Georgia is 17% complete (19% on average) and California is at 10% (11% on average).



WINTER WHEAT SEEDING ON NORMAL PACE, BUT EMERGENCE LAGGING... As of Sunday, USDA says 71% of the winter wheat crop was planted, which is up 14 percentage points from the previous week and right in line with the five-year average. Planting is more advanced than normal in Kansas (81% versus 76% on average), Oklahoma (75% compared to 69% on average) and Texas (67% versus 65% on average).

Winter wheat emergence stands at 36% complete, which is a 13-percentage-point increase from the previous week, but eight points behind normal. Heavy and relatively widespread rains across winter wheat country this past weekend should boost crop emergence.



MORE DETAILS ON PRE-REPORT CORN PRICE JUMP... As we reported in Friday's "Evening Report," corn futures posted sharp gains seconds ahead of the 7:30 a.m. CT release of the Oct. 11 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production Reports. USDA and CME Group have discussed the situation and say some additional checking may take place. USDA officials have verified the process of posting the reports to the Internet was initiated and completed after 7:30 a.m. CT and they say they are unaware that any news services are allowed access to the data within lockup transmitted any information ahead of the release time.

Addressing the early release of the June 24, 2011 Hogs & Pigs Report, USDA contacts say that the failure of a single switch that led to the early release has been addressed and that was not the culprit this time. For more details on the USDA release process and speculation over what might have occurred, click here.


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