Evening Report (VIP) -- October 17, 2013

October 17, 2013 10:03 AM

USDA CANCELS OCTOBER CROP PRODUCTION AND S&D REPORTS... USDA today announced National Agricultural Statistics Service's (NASS) Crop Production and Cotton Ginnings reports and the World Ag Outlook Board's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) scheduled for Oct. 11 are canceled because "NASS has not been able to engage in the necessary data collection and analysis over the past few weeks."

As to upcoming reports, NASS says it's "assessing its data collection plans and evaluating the timing of upcoming reports." Survey work for the November Crop Production Report would start Oct. 23 or 24 with the objective yield data gathering and the farmer surveys mailed out about the same time. Phone survey work would be started around Oct. 31 and run for the next week. But there is a major question on the fate of the final harvest samples on fields that have gone through the combine during the partial government shutdown. That goes back to the issue of whether field enumerators opted to continue their work despite being ordered to halt their activities.

Other updates regarding USDA data releases include the following:

  • Crop Progress Reports (Oct. 7 and 15): Canceled
  • CFTC's Commitments of Traders Report (Oct. 17-18): Will not be published this week
  • Cattle on Feed Report (Oct. 18): Postponed to an undetermined date
  • Data Users Meeting (Oct. 21): Expectations are the session should still take place

USDA did update its export inspections data today, but there has so far been no word regarding the Weekly Export Sales Report that would normally be released tomorrow. Your editors will update ProFarmer.com as more information becomes available.


EXTENDED FORECASTS PROVIDE LITTLE PRECIP GUIDANCE... The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for November through January calls for above-normal temps across the Midwest, Central Plains and Southern Plains, but provides little precip guidance. The agency says chances are equal for normal, below- or above-normal precip through January across the Northern Plains, Central Plains and Midwest, while below-normal precip is expected across the Oklahoma Panhandle and Texas.

As a result of recent weather and the extended forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests drought improvement will be scattered. It expects additional short-term drought improvement in eastern and central Texas, but says the seasonal tilt toward abnormal dryness supports drought persistence over the remainder of the Southern Plains. It also says drought should remain intact across areas of the Central Plains and central Corn Belt.

If realized, the outlook signals springtime moisture will be critical for recharging Midwest soils and raises the risk to the winter wheat crop as it comes out of dormancy next spring. Click here for related maps.


SLIGHT DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT IN LATEST WEEK... According to the National Drought Monitor, 45% of the contiguous U.S. is free of drought, which is a three-percentage-point improvement from last week. The Midwest, High Plains and South regions also experienced slight drought improvement in the latest week. Click here for related maps.


MIDDAY REPORTS REFLECT BEEF PRICES HAVE STRENGTHENED, PORK WEAKER... USDA began updating data that was available to them today. As of midday, Choice boxed beef values stood at $196.46, which is up $3.21 from the last report on Sept. 30. Meanwhile, the pork cutout value was reported at $95.57, which is down $5.90 from Sept. 30. The increase in the Choice boxed beef price is around $1.50 higher than what Urner Barry tabulated as of yesterday afternoon. The drop in the pork cutout value was about half of what Urner Barry had indicated.

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