Evening Report (VIP) -- October 25, 2012

October 25, 2012 09:59 AM

IGC LOWERS GLOBAL GRAINS CARRYOVER... The International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its projection of 2012-13 total global grains carryover by 4 MMT from last month to 328 MMT, which compares to 372 MMT last season. The group trimmed global wheat carryover by 3 MMT to 172 MMT (196 MMT last season) and trimmed global corn carryover by 1 MMT to 117 MMT (135 MMT last season). IGC raised its global soybean carryover projection by 5 MMT to 27 MMT, which compares to 24 MMT last season.

IGC says lower wheat yields in the EU and Kazakhstan, as well as deteriorating crop prospects in Argentina and Australia, resulted in a 2-MMT reduction in the forecast for world wheat production to 655 MMT. For corn, IGC says while global demand has eroded, a 3-MMT reduction in the size of the world crop to 830 MMT tightened carryover. Read more.



FOOD PRICE UPDATE... Retail food prices have on average been flat thus far in 2012, says USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS). The food-at-home Consumer Price Index was unchanged from January to September 2012. Deflationary pressure due to low fruit, vegetable, milk and pork prices were offset by higher prices for beef and veal, poultry and fats and oils. High corn and soybean prices due to the Midwest drought are not expected to translate to higher retail food prices until 2013. Based on these conditions, ERS says its inflation forecast for both all food and food-at-home (grocery store) prices in 2012 is unchanged at 2.5% to 3.5%. Its outlook for 2013 is for a 3% to 4% increase in both these categories. Click here for more details.



NOVEMBER WASDE REPORT WILL INCLUDE BIODIESEL PRODUCTION... USDA announced today the Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will include changes to the soybean and products table. The domestic disappearance category will now show breakouts for "Biodiesel" and "Food, Feed, Other Industrial" use. The biodiesel projections and final estimates will be based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency's Monthly Biodiesel Production Report.

The projection for Methyl Ester (which previously represented the use of soybean oil for biodiesel production) was discontinued in May 2012. Reliable data measuring the use of soybean oil for this purpose are no longer available because the Census Bureau discontinued the fats and oils crushing data.



DROUGHT MONITOR REFLECTS STUBBORN KANSAS DROUGHT... According to the National Drought Monitor, there was no change to the drought status across Kansas last week; all of the state remains covered by some form of drought. Most concerning is that nearly 40% is covered by "exceptional" drought, which largely covers the western half Kansas. The monitor notes that significant precipitation was limited to the eastern Dakotas, while the winter wheat belt received little or no rain. "As a result, soil moisture shortages continued to limit wheat emergence and development across the northwestern half of the Plains," it states. "In addition, midweek wind gusts locally in excess of 70 miles per hour raised dust and temporarily closed major roadways across parts of the Plains. On the southern half of the Plains, however, a combination of warmer weather and previous soil moisture improvements promoted wheat growth." Click here for more, including related maps.



CME GROUP TO MAKE $2 MILLION PAYOUT TO EX-PEREGRINE CLIENTS... CME Group plans next month to begin paying $2 million to former clients of failed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group. The payments will go to nearly 200 farmers, ranchers and cooperatives who hedged/traded via CME Groups' commodity exchanges, according to the exchange. These are the first payouts since CME Group established an emergency "insurance" fund in response to the collapse of MF Global in October 2011.


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