USDA WILL NOT PUBLISH CROP PRODUCTION, S&D REPORTS FRIDAY... USDA says it will not publish its Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports on Friday. No timeline has been determined as to when USDA will issue the October reports due to uncertainty regarding when Congress will settle partial government shutdown issues. USDA officials simply say no decisions have been made at this time.
Nevertheless, Reuters newswire released its pre-report expectations based on its survey of private analysts. The average trade estimate is for the corn crop to average a 156.53-bu.-per- acre yield on 88.142 million harvested acres for a 13.802 billion bu. crop. In September, USDA forecast corn production of 13.843 billion bu. on a national average yield of 155.3 bu. per acre and a harvested acreage projection of 89.135 million.
On soybeans, pre-report trade expectations are for USDA to raise its average yield estimate to 41.55 bu. per acre on 75.933 harvested acres (down 445,000 acres from September) for a 3.156 billion-bu.-crop. Last month, USDA predicted a 3.149 billion bu. bean crop with a national average yield of 41.2 bu. per acre.
Pre-report expectations are for USDA to raise its 2013-14 corn ending stocks estimate by 68 million bu. to 1.923 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks are expected to be up 17 million bu. from September to 167 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks are expected to come in at 519 million bu., which would be down 42 million bu. from September.
DEBT LIMIT DEADLINE LIKELY OCT. 31 or NOV. 1... Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has repeatedly said the debt limit deadline comes on Oct. 17, when Lew has said he will exhaust available measures to conserve cash and begin relying entirely on incoming revenue. But Lew ducked questions Sunday about whether that means the nation would immediately default. He said that he cannot predict when he will run short of cash to make required payments and warned that lawmakers are "playing with fire" if they do not act fast to grant him additional authority to borrow.
Private industry analysts have offered a more specific timetable, saying default is likely no later than Nov. 1, when the Treasury Department is scheduled to make nearly $60 billion in payments to Social Security recipients, Medicare providers, civil-service retirees and active-duty military service members. Some Republicans argue that missing such routine payments would not amount to a governmental default. They say that would occur only if the Treasury Department fails to make interest payments to investors. But that could happen as soon as Oct. 31, when the department is due to pay out $6 billion in interest.
HOUSE LIKELY TO ANNOUNCE FARM BILL CONFEREES THIS WEEK... House leadership will likely announce its farm bill conferees by the end of this week, usually reliable contacts advise. The Senate has already announced its conferees. Of note on the House side will be whether or not conferees are chosen outside of the House Ag Committee. The conference would be instructed to finish its work before so-called motions to instruct could take place in the House -- a timeline of around three weeks.
Meanwhile, some sources are beginning to predict that a new farm bill will not be part of an eventual budget agreement package. Instead, they say, a separate farm bill conference report is possible, with expectations that 40 or so conservative House Republicans would vote against the report, but enough Democratic and other Republican votes would be enough to clear the eventual farm bill conference report.
WINTERY WEATHER CLOSES DOOR ON PLANTING IN RUSSIA/UKRAINE... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says a snow storm that hit Ukraine and southern Russia over the weekend has halted seeding of the winter grains crops and raises expectations that planted area will be sharply reduced. "Winter wheat is the main crop in jeopardy, but rapeseed production would also shrink from exceptional adverse weather," she says.
In Ukraine, Martell says, "Very severe planting delays have resulted from exceptional cold in September, capped off by a weekend snow storm in eastern Ukraine. Temperatures last week averaged 7-9 C below normal, mostly below freezing, retarding growth and development in winter grains. Not only would the grain harvest be reduced by a sharp reduction in plantings, but also incomplete germination and smaller plants brought on by the cold."
Meanwhile in Russia, Martell says producers are facing similar obstacles, with rains in September in key grain growing regions coming in 150% to 200% of normal. "The reason for persistent bad weather is a stalled trough of low pressure in European Russia." Click here for related maps.
BRAZILIAN FIRM RAISES SOYBEAN CROP FORECAST... Brazilian-based analyst Celeres raised its forecast for Brazil's 2014 soybean crop by 1 MMT to 86.2 MMT. It says higher prices and a favorable currency rate are encouraging farmers to increase acreage. The group believes forward cash sales of the crop have reached 30%, below 46% at this time last year when prices were higher. Celeres trimmed its 2013-14 Brazilian corn production forecast by 1.5 MMT to 83.6 MMT.
Additionally, Abiove, a vegoils association that represents international crushers, forecasts 2013-14 Brazilian soybean exports at 44 MMT, up from 41.5 MMT in 2012-13.