Evening Report (VIP) -- September 16, 2013

September 16, 2013 10:32 AM
 

CORN CROP CONDITION DECLINES... As expected, USDA reports 53% of the nation's corn crop is rated in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is a one-percentage-point drop from last week. USDA rates 18% of the crop "poor" to "very poor," which is up one percentage point from last week and compares to 50% last year at this time. The drop in crop ratings was in line with expectations.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

6

12

29

40

13

Last week

5

12

29

41

13

Year-ago

25

25

26

21

3

 

USDA reports 81% of the crop was dented as of Sunday, compared to 64% last week and 86% on average. USDA rates 22% of the crop as mature versus 9% last week and 41% on average. In Illinois, 25% is mature (50% on average); Indiana is at 22% (40%); Iowa is at 15% (45%); Nebraska is at 16% (29%), Ohio is at 12% (28%); and South Dakota is at 18% (27% average).

USDA reports 4% of the crop has been harvested, compared to 24% last year at this time and 10% on average. Very little harvesting has taken place across the heart of the Corn Belt.

 

 

SOYBEAN CROP CONDITION DECLINES MORE THAN EXPECTED... USDA reports 50% of the nation's soybean crop is rated in "good" to "excellent" condition, which is down two percentage points from last week. Traders expected a 1-percentage-point decline. USDA reports 18% of the crop is rated "poor" to "very poor," which is up two percentage points from last week and compares to 36% last year at this time.

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

5

13

32

41

9

Last week

4

12

32

42

10

Year-ago

15

21

31

28

5

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 26% of the crop was dropping leaves, compared to 11% the previous week and 35% on average. Illinois is at 13% (27% on average); Indiana is at 40% (44%); Iowa is at 7% (31%); Minnesota is at 21% (29%); Nebraska is at 36% (25%); and Ohio is at 46% (41%).

 

 

WINTER WHEAT PLANTING ON TRACK WITH AVERAGE PACE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 12% of the nation's winter wheat crop was planted, which compares to 5% last week and is on track with the five-year average. Kansas has 5% seeded, which compares to 2% the previous week and 6% on average; Oklahoma is at 7%, (4% the previous week and 8% on average); and Texas is 17% planted, (3% the previous week and 12% on average).

 

 

COTTON CONDITION DECLINES... USDA reports the condition of the cotton crop declined, with 43% of the crop rated in "good" to "excellent:" shape, which is down two percentage points from last week. The decline in crop ratings should help limit pressure on futures tomorrow morning.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

10

14

33

34

9

Last week

8

13

34

36

9

Year-ago

12

18

27

32

11

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 36% of the crop was opening bolls, compared to 24% the previous week and 51% on average. Cotton harvest is 4% complete versus 6% last year at this time and 8% on average. Harvest is 9% complete in Texas, compared to 13% on average.

 

 

 

NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST: WET FOR WESTERN CORN BELT/PLAINS... The National Weather Service forecast for September 22-26 calls for above-normal precip across the western Corn Belt, northern Illinois, all but far southeast Missouri, Wisconsin and the entire Plains region. Indiana is expected to see normal rainfall, while below-normal precip is expected across Ohio. Above-normal temps are forecast across the Corn Belt and Plains during the period. A cooler, wetter forecast across the Plains and Midwest pressured grain futures today. Click here for related images.

 

 

MIDWEST FORECAST TURNS WET... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says weather models point to widespread rains across the Corn Belt of at least 0.75 inch for much of the Belt and over an inch in many areas. She says the dome of high pressure that blocked Midwest showers previously has been pushed westward into the Rocky Mountains and is no longer an obstacle for the heartland.

Martell says 1976 is becoming a good analog for the summer of 2013. She says a late-summer drought in 1976 resulted in the Iowa corn yield finishing 11.5% below trend. She believes since USDA is currently projecting an Iowa corn yield 9% below trend there is more downside risk to the yield peg. Click here for related maps.

 

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