Evening Report (VIP) -- September 30, 2013

September 30, 2013 09:39 AM
 

CORN HARVEST JUST 12% COMPLETE... USDA reports that 12% of the corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, compared to 7% last week and 23% on average. Traders expected harvest to be around 15% complete. The slower-than-expected corn harvest raises concerns that harvest-related price pressure will drag on this year.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

5

11

29

41

14

Last week

5

11

29

42

13

Year-ago

26

24

25

21

4

 

USDA reports as of Sunday that Illinois had 13% of the crop harvested (34% on average); Indiana 13% (22%); Iowa 5% (16%); Minnesota 2% (12%); Ohio 7% (11%); Nebraska 9% (16%); and South Dakota 11% (13%).

Meanwhile, USDA reports the condition of the crop improved marginally from last week, with 14% of the crop rated "excellent," gaining one percentage point from the "good" category. USDA rates 41% of the crop "good," 29% "fair" and 16% "poor" to "very poor."

 

 

SOYBEAN HARVEST 11% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 11% of the nation's soybean crop was harvested, which matched traders' expectations. This compares to 3% last week and 20% on average.

USDA reports that Illinois has 10% harvested (15% on average); Indiana 16% (19%); Iowa 5% (21%); Minnesota 9% (26%); Nebraska 13% (19%); Ohio 17% (15); and South Dakota 13% (25%).

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

4

11

32

43

10

Last week

5

12

33

41

9

Year-ago

14

19

32

29

6

 

Meanwhile, USDA reports the condition of the crop improved, with 53% now rated "good" to "excellent," which is up three percentage points from the previous week.

 

 

WINTER WHEAT PLANTING 39% COMPLETE... USDA reports as of Sunday that 39% of the winter wheat crop was planted, compared to 23% last week and 40% on average. Kansas has 33% planted (35% on average), with Oklahoma at 37% (36%) and Texas at 42% (39%). Meanwhile, USDA reports 12% of the crop has emerged, compared to 15% on average. Kansas has 8% of the crop up (10% on average), with Oklahoma at 6% (12%) and Texas at 15% (12).

 

 

CONDITION OF COTTON CROP DECLINES... Traders expected this afternoon's condition report to reflect deterioration in the cotton crop after late-season rains hampered the crop that is opening bolls in the South. USDA reports the crop rated "good" to "excellent" declined by two percentage points from the previous week to 42%.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

10

14

34

34

8

Last week

10

13

33

35

9

Year-ago

12

19

27

32

10

 

USDA reports as of Sunday that 59% of the crop had bolls open, compared to 47% the previous week and 71% on average. Texas is at 53% (63% on average) and Arizona has 99% of bolls open (92%). Meanwhile, 7% of the crop has been harvested, which is only a two-percentage-point advancement from last week and compares to 14% on average. Arizona has just 7% harvested (19% on average) and Texas is at 11% (16%).

 

 

CORN, BEAN STOCKS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED... Corn and soybean futures faced stepped-up pressured in reaction to this morning's Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that showed Sept. 1 stocks for those crops above expectations. The report sets 2013-14 beginning stocks at 824 million bu. for corn and 141 million bu. for soybeans. Wheat traders largely shrugged-off a slightly-higher-than-expected all wheat crop at 2.128 billion bu., as Sept. 1 wheat stocks were well below expectations. Click here for the Pro Farmer report reaction.

 

 

HOUSE COMBINES FARM, NUTRITION SPENDING BILLS... The House Saturday afternoon approved a rule that combines the agriculture-only farm bill (HR 2642) that passed in July with the nutrition measure (HR 3102) approved Sept. 19. The next step is for House and Senate leaders to appoint conferees and begin negotiations. While House GOP leaders have said they will appoint conferees for the farm bill once the House legislation is merged, there is no specific timeline for such naming.

 

 

COLD/WET CONDITIONS LEAD TO PLANTING DELAYS IN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says excessively wet conditions in areas of Ukraine and Russia have led to delays in planting winter grains. She says delayed planting in the northern latitudes is especially detrimental since it shortens the establishment period for crops.

"The unusual cold and wetness in European Russia is due to 'omega block' in the jet stream. A ridge of warm air over Western Europe is bounded by cold troughs on either side, the east Atlantic Ocean and European Russia. When an omega block forms in the upper-air wind field, it tends to persist for several weeks," she notes. Click here for more.

 

 

RABOBANK WARNS ABOUT SHARP DOWNTURN IN FARMLAND VALUES... LandOwner Editor Mike Walsten says RaboBank has issued a report that warns of surging interest ratings resulting in a 15% to 20% decline in central U.S. farmland values.

The report, from the Rabobank Food & Agribusiness (FAR) Research and Advisory Group, states the era of extremely low interest rates and extraordinarily high commodity prices is drawing to a close. "We'll likely see lower commodity prices this year, but they aren't going to be low enough long enough to substantially impact land values for the coming year or so," says report author and senior analyst Sterling Liddell. "In the short-term, strong farmer balance sheets and high rental rates will support current levels. However, decreasing commodity prices will keep the value from accelerating as rapidly as they have been." Click here for more.

 

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