Evening Report (VIP) -- September 3, 2013

September 3, 2013 10:46 AM
 

CORN CROP CONDITION DECLINES AMID HEAT... USDA reports as of Sunday, 56% of the U.S. corn crop was rated "good" to "excellent," a 3-percentage-point drop from the week prior that aligns with pre-report expectations. With little rain and more heat in the forecast this week, more declines are likely in store.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

5

11

28

42

14

Last week

4

10

27

44

15

Year-ago

26

26

26

19

3

 

USDA reports 42% of the crop is now dented, compared with 23% last week and 61% for the five-year average pace. All of the major production states lag the average pace with Illinois 46% dented (69% on average), Indiana 47% (69% on average), Iowa 33% (64% on average), Minnesota 22% (51% on average) and Nebraska 51% (70% on average).

Four percent of the corn crop is now rated as mature, compared to 17% for the five-year average and 38% last year. Again, all of the major production states are well behind in terms of maturity with Illinois the notable laggard at 0% mature, compared to 26% for the five-year average pace.

 

 

BEAN CROP CONDITION RATINGS SLIDE... As expected, USDA rates 54% of the U.S. soybean crop "good" to "excellent" as of Sept. 1, down 4 percentage points from the week prior. Last week's heat wave on top of parched soils took a toll on the crop.

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

4

11

31

43

11

Last week

3

10

29

46

12

Year-ago

16

21

33

26

4

 

USDA reports that as of Sunday, 92% of the bean crop was setting pods, which compares to 96% for the five-year average pace and 98% last year at this time. Last week's heat accelerated crop development in many states, with Illinois now just 6 points behind the average pace at 91% setting pods; Indiana is at 95%, steady with the average pace; Iowa is at 93%, 5 points behind the average pace; Minnesota is at 94%, 4 points behind the norm; and Nebraska is at 98%, steady with the five-year average pace.

 

 

COTTON CROP DETERIORATES... As of Sunday, USDA says the amount of U.S. cotton rated in "good" to "excellent" condition declined over the last week to 45%, a 2-point drop from the week prior. This follows consecutive weeks of improvements that spurred a major selloff in the futures market. In the major cotton production state of Texas, just 34% of the crop is rated in the top two categories.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

9

14

32

36

9

Last week

8

12

33

39

8

Year-ago

10

18

30

32

10

 

The condition of the cotton crop continues to lag the norm, as just 16% of the U.S. cotton crop is opening bolls, which is 13 percentage points behind the five-year average pace. In Texas, 16% of the crop is opening bolls, up 3 points from last week and 9 points behind the average pace. Ten percent of the Georgia cotton crop is opening bolls, compared to 3% last week and 34% on average.

 

 

SPRING WHEAT HARVEST SURGES AHEAD... Hot, dry conditions helped spring wheat harvest advance 22 points over the past week to 64% complete as of Sept. 1, which compares to 69% complete at this time for the five-year average. This signals harvest-related hedge pressure should ease going forward.

 

 

MARTELL: MIDWEST DROUGHT LINGERS, FORECAST DRY... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says the atmosphere is very dry across the Midwest, leading to strong heating during the day. Weather models call for the dryness to continue across the Corn Belt this week. "A broad flat ridge of high pressure would effectively block rainfall from the central Great Plains, Midwest and Mid-South," she says.

Martell says there are rainfall chances for the weekend across areas of the western and upper Midwest, but she adds, "Even if the rainfall increases next week it would be late for Midwest crops." Click here for related maps.

 

 

CONSULTANT LOWERS SOYBEAN ESTIMATE... Pro Farmer Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says recent heat and dryness has been especially bad for later planted soybeans in the western Corn Belt. As a result, he lowered his soybean yield estimate by 0.5 bu. per acre to 40.5 bu. per acre, which dropped his crop estimate to 3.09 billion bushels. And with weather expected to remain hot and dry, especially in the western Belt, he has a negative bias toward the crop.

For corn, Dr. Cordonnier left his estimates at 152 bu. per acre and 13.4 billion bu., but he lowered his maximum yield and crop forecasts to 155 bu. per acre and 13.67 billion bu., respectively. He has a negative bias toward the corn crop going forward.

 

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