Evening Report (VIP) -- September 4, 2012

September 4, 2012 10:28 AM
 

CORN CONDITION HOLDS STEADY, HARVEST 10% COMPLETE... The condition of the corn crop was unchanged from last week, with 22% of the crop rated "good" to "excellent" and 52% rated "poor" to "very poor."

 

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

26

26

26

19

3

Last week

26

26

26

19

3

Year-ago

8

13

27

41

11

 

USDA reports as of Sunday, 10% of the corn crop was harvested compared to 6% last week and 3% on average. Illinois has 12% harvested (2% on average); Indiana is at 6% (1% on average); and Iowa is at 5% (none on average). Missouri has 44% harvested (8% on average) and Nebraska is at 7% (none on average). Little to no harvest progress has been made elsewhere across the Corn Belt.

 

 

SOYBEAN CONDITION IMPROVES MARGINALLY... The condition of the soybean crop improved modestly, with the portion of crop rated "fair" gaining a percentage point from the "very poor" category.

 

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

16

21

33

26

4

Last week

17

21

32

26

4

Year-ago

5

11

28

45

11

 

USDA reports 19% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves compared to 8% last week and 9% on average. This signals the crop is about a week more advanced than normal. Illinois and Iowa both have 7% dropping leaves, compared to 6% and 4% on average, respectively. Indiana is at 26%, compared to 14% on average.

 

 

COTTON CONDITION DECLINES SLIGHTLY... Traders expected slightly more crop deterioration to be noted after last week's heavy remnant rains from Hurricane Isaac resulted in localized flooding. But USDA reports the percent of crop rated "good" to "excellent" declined by just one point from the previous week.

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

10

18

30

32

10

Last week

10

18

29

33

10

Year-ago

25

19

28

24

4

 

USDA reports 36% of the cotton crop has bolls open compared to 24% last week and 30% on average. But the report shows that 67% of the Louisiana crop and 70% of the Mississippi crop was vulnerable to damaging rains, as that's the percentage of bolls open in those states.

 

CONSULTANT LOWERS CORN CROP ESTIMATE... Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says heavy rains that moved across the eastern Corn Belt over the weekend may have caused additional damage and hot temps last week may have hindered kernel fill. "The corn crop is so variable this year that unfortunately we probably won't have an accurate assessment of the crop until harvest is complete," he says.

Dr. Cordonnier says early harvest reports reflect extreme drought stress during the growing season and are resulting in lighter test weights. As a result, he lowered his corn yield another 2 bu. per acre to 119 bu. per acre for a crop of 9.87 billion bushels.

 

 

CONSULTANT LOWERS SOYBEAN CROP ESTIMATE... Dr. Cordonnier says additional rains in the eastern Corn Belt helped some later-maturing soybeans, but the moisture is generally too late as much of the crop has already turned yellow. Also, rains in the Delta resulted in localized flooding and damaged the crop. Meanwhile, conditions were too hot in the western Belt last week, forcing the crop to mature even faster. As a result, he has lowered his soybean yield estimate by 1 bu. per acre to 34.5 bu. per acre for a crop of 2.52 billion bushels.

 

 

SOIL MOISTURE RESTORED IN ARGENTINA... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says soil moisture has been fully restored after a serious winter drought in Argentina. She says if El Nino takes hold, yield prospects would be considerably better than last year. "Rainfall was so intense in August it completely wiped out a 5-inch moisture deficit in Junin, Buenos Aires, the major corn province, even creating a moisture surplus," says Martell.

 

 

ARGENTINA APPROVES ANOTHER 2.75 MMT OF CORN EXPORTS... Argentina's government on Tuesday approved the export of another 2.75 million metric tons (MMT) of 2011-12 corn, bringing the total authorization through the quota system to 16.25 MMT. The general thought is the government is more comfortable allowing more old-crop corn to be freed up for export after rains recharged soil moistures ahead of corn planting.

 

 

CHINESE DEMAND DESTRUCTION PLAGUING COTTON INDUSTRY... The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) says China's policy to maintain a minimum support price for farmers and enforcing that with import quotas and a sliding scale tariff ensures that mill use of cotton in the country will continue to erode. ICAC projects 2012-13 mill use in China at 8.6 MMT, unchanged from the previous year, but down from a peak of about 11 MMT five seasons ago. "The loss of mill use of cotton in China is being offset by rising polyester and rayon use, resulting in a rapid decline in cotton's market share," it says. "Mill use of cotton is rising or holding steady in other large countries, including India, Pakistan, Turkey and the United States."

Due to Chinese demand destruction, ICAC projects 2012-13 global ending stocks to rise to nearly 16 MMT, up from nearly 14 MMT in 2011-12.

 

 

GRASSLEY: ONE-YEAR FARM BILL EXTENSION LIKELY... Congress will likely include a one-year extension of farm programs in the continuing resolution (CR) that lawmakers will consider later this month, says Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). The 2008 Farm Bill will expire at the end of this month, and there are only eight legislative days in the House for that chamber to complete its version of a new farm bill, which Grassley says is an unlikely scenario.

Grassley also believes Congress will pass a drought-disaster aid bill along the lines of the legislation that passed the GOP-controlled House before the recess. The bill extended several programs that expired in 2011.

An extension would not not mean Congress will stop work on a new farm bill. Final action on a new bill could take place during the lame-duck session of Congress following Nov. 6 elections, or early in 2013. A one-year extension of the 2008 Farm Bill could give USDA ample time to get the rules and other regulations in place before any new farm bill takes effect.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close