DISAPPOINTING JOBS REPORT... The U.S. economy added just 96,000 non-farm payrolls in August, well below pre-report expectations of 125,000 jobs added. In addition, June and July payrolls were revised down a combined 41,000 jobs from previous reports. Despite sluggish jobs growth, the August unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from 8.3% in July. That's because the labor force fell 368,000 in August and the labor-force participation rate fell another 0.2%. That dropped the participation rate to just 63.5%, the lowest since September 1981. The numbers behind the headline (a drop to 8.1% unemployment) mean the lower unemployment rate is actually bad news for the economy.
Given the disappointing jobs data, investors see higher odds the Fed will announce a new round of economic stimulus following its Sept. 12-13 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. But some still question whether the Fed will make a move ahead of the Nov. 6 elections.
INFORMA LOWERS CORN, SOYBEAN FORECASTS... Consulting firm Informa Economics reportedly sees U.S. corn production at 10.310 billion bu. with the national average yield at 119.8 bu. per acre and soybean production of 2.639 billion bu. with the national average yield at 35.4 bu. per acre for September. In August, Informa put the corn crop at 10.338 bililon bu. with a yield of 120.7 bu. per acre and the bean crop at 2.791 billion bu. with a yield of 37.2 bu. per acre.
In its "mostly likely final" forecasts, Informa reportedly sees the corn crop at 11.030 billion bu. (126.5 bu. per acre yield) and the soybean crop at 2.686 billion bushels.
NWS 6-10 DAY FORECAST: MOSTLY NORMAL PRECIP FOR CORN BELT... The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for September 13-17 calls for a mix of precip across the Corn Belt, but most regions are expected to see normal conditions that would help to accelerate harvest. Rains are in the forecast for the western Central and Southern Plains, which would be beneficial for establishment of winter wheat. Click here for related maps.
CANADIAN WHEAT, CANOLA STOCKS LOWER THAN EXPECTED... As of the end of July, Canadian all wheat stocks were 18.1% lower than year-ago at 5.879 million metric tons (MMT), down 18.1% from year-ago and canola stocks were 64.1% tighter than year-ago at 588,000 metric tons (MT), according to Statistics Canada. Both were below expectations, with the wheat stocks figure the lowest in four years and canola stocks the smallest in eight years. Barley stocks came in slightly higher than expected at 1.221 MMT, but were down 15.2% from year-ago. Click here for more.
AUGUST SAW BIG MOVES IN THE INPUTS MONITOR INDEX... Pro Farmer Inputs Monitor Associate Editor Davis Michaelsen says August brought some big moves to the index, with the biggest mover being urea. It fell sharply over the first two weeks of the month. Click here to read the monthly summary.
Crops Analysis (VIP) -- September 7, 2012
Wheat Takes Center Stage in Otherwise Quiet Week