Evening Report (VIP) -- September 9, 2013

September 9, 2013 10:39 AM
 

CONDITION OF CORN CROP DECLINES AS EXPECTED... USDA reports the condition of the corn crop rated "good" to "excellent" declined by two percentage points from last week to 54%, which met traders' expectations. Given ongoing heat across the Corn Belt and little meaningful widespread rain in the forecast, the crop will continue to deteriorate this week.

Corn

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

5

12

29

41

13

Last week

5

11

28

42

14

Year-ago

26

26

26

19

3

 

Importantly, USDA reports as of Sunday that 64% of the crop was dented, which is a 22-percentage-point advancement from last week. Obviously, heat is having an impact on the speed of maturity for the crop. While this is reducing the risk of an early freeze, the "fast" finish of the crop will impact test weight. Illinois has 69% dented (78% on average); Indiana is at 67% (72%); Iowa is at 54% (78%); Minnesota is at 50% (72%); Nebraska is at 72% (82%) and Ohio is at 67% (68%).

 

SOYBEAN CONDITION DECLINES LESS THAN EXPECTED... USDA reports the condition of the soybean crop rated "good" to "excellent" declined by two percentage points from last week to 52%. Traders expected a three-percentage-point decline. While this signals soybeans aren't declining as fast as traders expected, it still points the crop toward a poor finish as hot and mostly dry conditions are seen continuing this week.

Soybeans

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

4

12

32

42

10

Last week

4

11

31

43

11

Year-ago

15

21

32

27

5

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 97% of the crop was setting pods, which compares to 92% last week and 98% on average. USDA reports 11% of the crop was dropping leaves, which compares to 19% on average. Illinois has 3% dropping leaves (12% on average); Indiana is at 13% (26%); Iowa is at 2% (12%); Minnesota is at 7% (17%); Nebraska is at 16% (9%) and Ohio is at 16% (23%).

 

LITTLE CHANGE TO CONDITION OF COTTON CROP... USDA reports 45% of the nation's cotton crop is in "good" to "excellent" shape, which is unchanged from last week. USDA rates 34% "fair" (32% last week) and 21% "poor" to "very poor" (23% last week).

Cotton

very poor

poor

fair

good

excellent

This week

8

13

34

36

9

Last week

9

14

32

36

9

Year-ago

11

19

29

31

10

 

As of Sunday, USDA reports 24% of the crop was opening bolls, which compares to 16% last week and 40% on average. Georgia has 22% opening bolls (47% on average) and Texas is at 20% (33%).

 

WINTER WHEAT PLANTING BEGINS... USDA has released its first winter wheat planting progress report, which shows 5% of the crop has been seeded, which is equal to the five-year average. Kansas has 2% planted (equal to average pace), with Oklahoma at 4% (3% on average) and Texas at 3% (4% on average).

 

SPRING WHEAT HARVEST 80% COMPLETE... USDA reports that 80% of the nation's spring wheat crop was harvested as of Sunday, which compares to 64% last week and 79% on average. North Dakota is catching up to the average pace with 73% harvested (78% on average), as harvest advanced by 20 percentage points last week.

 

MARTELL: FORECAST LESS FAVORABLE... Meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says weekend rain was disappointing and weather models are less favorable for precip chances this week. She says while sharp cooling is still in the forecast by the weekend, "ridge-rider" storms are only expected to result in light rains in northern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt. "The five-day outlook indicates potential for heavy rainfall for central Nebraska due to the Southwest monsoon," she notes, adding weather models show only modest rainfall chances for the majority of the Midwest.

"A dry finish to the growing season is especially damaging for soybeans filling pods. This is the main period for determining yields. Smaller seeds and few seeds per pod would be the outcome. Pod setting was 92% underway Sept. 1," she adds. "Once pods are set it takes 30-40 days for seed filling to be completed." Click here for related maps.

 

CFIUS OKAYS SMITHFIELD DEAL... As expected, the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS), which examines foreign investment for potential threats to national security, gave Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd.'s proposal to acquire Smithfield Foods Inc. the green light on Friday. The $7.1 billion deal (including debt) still must be approved by its shareholders. A special meeting is scheduled for this purpose on Sept. 24. Shareholders are not expected to thwart the deal. The lean hog market has responded positively to the news, as investors see this as opening export opportunities for U.S. pork.

Senate Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow, who has been a vocal critic about the deal, said, "It remains unclear what factors the Committee took into account in making its decision. We still do not know if the potential impact on American food security, the transfer of taxpayer funded innovation to a foreign competitor, or China’s protectionist trade barriers were considered. It’s troubling that taxpayers have received no assurances that these critical issues have been taken into account in transferring control of one of America’s largest food producers to a Chinese competitor with a spotty record on food safety. The Senate Agriculture Committee will continue examining the effectiveness of the review process for acquisitions such as this and take steps as needed to protect American interests in future transactions."

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close