Expect $4.70 Corn With Sub-Trend Line Yields, Delayed Market Reaction

July 20, 2017 02:36 PM

Despite recent price action, corn markets have relatively stayed sideways in 2017. Mark Gold, managing partner with Top Third Ag Marketing, said there isn’t a chance the U.S. will repeat the same yields in 2017 that farmers experienced in 2016.

“We lost a lot of corn in the spring when we got it in late and the wet conditions—one problem after another,” said Gold. “Then we put the heat on it, and now it looks like silking is going to come right as we get the worst heat.”

Based on hot, dry conditions in North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska as well as flooding in Indiana, yields could trend lower than what the USDA is expecting and lower than trend line yields.

Gold believed the trend line yield for 2017 could be either 162 or 163, and based on that estimation, he thinks prices could reach up to $4.70 per bushel on corn, but it could take the market a while to respond.

“Every time somebody puts in a weather forecast, we’re going to break this market,” he said. “Over the last three or four weeks, every wet forecast has been a buying opportunity because we follow it up with hotter and drier during the week.”

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Spell Check

Eastern, NE
7/23/2017 09:04 PM

  If I recall right, these reports are at least 10 days behind current conditions. Maybe USDA has sped up their processes, but... Also, their information is only as good as what we provide to them. Maybe Trump should make first buyers pay the farmers parity prices and the trade can do what they want. End processors will have to figure it out from there.

Greensburg, IN
7/24/2017 08:53 AM

  One experts says higher, then the next one says price are headed lower. I think so too. Gold says $4.50 to $4.70 but yet he says take advantage of current rallies. Now which is it Mark? $4.50 or $3.95? I am confused? I do agree this could be the year where harvest uncovers all the growing season problems. Now that rally you probably will need sell directly off the combine, and/or sell any carry that is left if you do have bins cause I think demand will be hard pressed to stay up.

Osterdock , IA
7/21/2017 05:44 PM

  Don't worry...the USDA will find 10 million more bushels in on farm storage...They need to keep China happy...


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