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Experts Provide Insight into Jan. 12 Reports

14:13PM Jan 11, 2012
USDA fields

USDA will release the final corn, soybean and cotton production numbers on Jan. 12. All eyes will be on the production and acreage numbers for corn. The quarterly Grain Stocks report will also be released that morning, showing total supplies of grains and oilseeds on hand as of Dec. 31. 

These two reports will set the tone for the markets in 2012, and they are the final major reports from USDA until the March 30 Prospective Plantings report. will have complete coverage and analysis of the reports leading up to and following their release. Here are some pre-report estimates and insight into these big reports.

Tomorrow we’ll know exactly how these reports will rock the markets. Here are some expert expectations.

AgWeb Radio: Closing Commentary 1-11-12
Bob Utterback of Utterback Marketing says most traders are going into the report expecting bullish numbers. Problem is, if numbers are bullish the market will try to rally, fail, and then have a bearish correction brought on by profit taking and producers selling.

AgWeb Radio: Midday Commentary 1-11-12
Jim Bower of Bower Trading says very light volume of trade today before the report. south American weather still a concern even after their rain. Corn stock will be the key number in tomorrows report -- high and low estimates vary a lot. traders are squaring their positions getting ready.

AgWeb Radio: Opening Commentary 1-11-12

Andy Shissler of Roach Ag Marketing says the markets are getting ready for tomorrow's crop report. Some rain in South America, but not enough. Andy says the stocks report should be bullish.



AgWeb Radio: Closing Commentary 1-10-12
Kevin Van Trump of Farm Direction says the market is in a relative tight range. Most thoughts are on the report coming out Thursday. Outside markets are keeping things going. The real test will happen Thursday morning -- most traders would like a bullish report.

AgWeb Radio: Midday Commentary 1-10-12
Tom Grisafi of Indiana Grain Company says grain is trading down a bit at noon. Outside markets are trading well today. Orange juice has traded up 10% today and was up 5% yesterday. 

AgWeb Opening Commentary 1-10-12
Mike Howlett of Top Third Ag Marketing says the market was quiet overnight. The USDA report to be released this Thursday has a history of causing surprises and major market moves and has funds and traders concerned.
More corn acreage, bigger yields and declining prices appear likely for 2012.
AgWeb Radio: Opening Commentary 1-9-12
Greg Milkovich of Roach Ag Marketing says the markets were higher overnight due to the rain in Argentina over the weekend, which ended before the dryness was corrected. The drought continues in South America. The market is evening up before the report on Thursday.
This Thursday, the USDA releases its January supply-demand report. When it comes to risk management, Todd Gleason with the University of Illinois says the coming month may be the most important. 
With the January 12 Crop Production Report on the horizon, the market is looking at conflicting fundamental factors.
Informa Economics predicts lower yields, but potential rainfall in South America brings support to the market. 
The start to next week will feature an addition or subtraction of weather premium in prices, before giving way to the very important USDA Report on Thursday.

Blog Commentary

By Alan Brugler
This will be the first full week of cash and futures trading since mid-December, and the plate will be pretty full. The elephant in the room will be the USDA reports on the morning on Jan. 12.
By Joe Vaclavik
Many traders looking for bullish numbers on next week’s report. Despite the change in SAM weather patterns, the markets could still rally next week because of this expectation.
By Justin Kelly
With so much uncertainty in Iran, weather problems in South America, and a large report out next Thursday, the market may continue to hold support until we get more confirmation about the crop size.

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