Johnston Pro Farmer Senior Markets Editor
as of 7:00 a.m. CT
export tallies may be a bit too high... With just one week left in
the export sales reporting period for corn and soybeans, we wanted to provide
an update on how exports were stacking up. The following statistics signal USDA's
corn and soybean export tallies are just a little bit too high, especially considering
net sales reductions have been reported for the last three weeks.
Corn: With just one week left in the 2007-08 marketing year, total
corn bookings are running 10% above year-ago levels. USDA projects corn exports
in the current marketing year to rise 14.1% from the previous year to 2.425 billion
bushels. This signals USDA's export forecast is just a little bit too high. USDA
reports total bookings as a percent of total exports are 101%, which is behind
the 5-year average pace of 104% for this time of year.
With just one week left in the 2007-08 marketing year, total soybean bookings
are running one percent over year-ago levels. USDA projects soybean exports for
2007-08 to be 2.6% above the previous year at 1.145 billion bushels. This pace
signals USDA's export forecast is just a little bit too high. USDA reports total
bookings as a percent of total exports at 101%, which is in line with the 5-year
- Wheat: With 41 weeks left in the 2008-09 marketing
year, total wheat bookings are running 7% behind year-ago levels. USDA projects
wheat exports in the current marketing year to rise 20.9% from the previous year
to 1.0 billion bushels. The export pace needs to improve, but there is a lot of
marketing year left to make up for the deficit. Total commitments as a percent
of total exports are running at 52%, which is ahead of the 5-year average of 39%
and last year's pace of 47%.
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calls. These calls originate more than three hours before the open
-- use caution, things change::
Corn: 2 to 3 cents lower.
Futures were lower overnight on spillover from yesterday's losses. Futures
closed 7 to 10 cents lower yesterday, pressured by weather and weakness in the
crude oil market. The International Energy Agency says they are prepared to release
oil stocks to meet shortfalls from the Gulf -- if it's needed. That, combined
with bearish weekly natural gas inventory data triggered a round of profit-taking
in crude oil futures yesterday.
Soybeans: 3 to 6 cents lower. Futures
were weaker overnight on spillover pressure. Futures remained under pressure through
the day, closing 15 to 23 cents lower. Early pressure came from overnight rains,
as a system brought needed moisture to many areas of the western Corn Belt and
some areas of the eastern Belt. Additional pressure came from outside markets,
as crude oil reversed early gains and closed weaker.
7 to 8 cents lower. Futures were lower overnight on spillover from yesterday's
losses. Futures posted double-digit losses at all three exchanges yesterday on
a combination of technicals and a lack of fresh positive news. Outside markets
were also negative for the wheat pit. After opening firmer, crude oil futures
softened and the dollar firmed. This combination kept buyers on the sidelines.
Cash cattle expectations:
Trade begins at steady. Cash cattle trade was moderate across the
Plains Thursday afternoon with the bulk of trade around $99 -- steady with the
bulk of last week's trade. The steady cash prices are better than some feared
given heavy pressure on cattle futures earlier this week.
call: Firmer. Futures are called firmer on news of steady cash trade with
last week. Yesterday, December live cattle traded in the lower half of the previous
day's range and posted a high-range close. Support lies at Wednesday's low of
$105.15, with resistance around the $107.50 level.
hog expectations: $1 to $2 lower. Cash hog bids are expected to range
from $1 to $3 lower across the Midwest as packers work to keep margins from sliding
amid plunging pork values. The pork cutout value dropped another $1.23 Thursday
and is down $8.35 from last Friday.
Futures call: Weaker.
Futures are called lower based on technical selling, but we wouldn't be surprised
if some short-covering came ahead of the weekend. But this week's price action
signals traders have a very bearish stance toward the market. Nearby contracts
have widened the discount they hold to the cash index, which is projected down
$1.70 to $82.42.