Extended Forecast Not Favorable For Drought Improvement Across Western States

July 18, 2013 03:19 AM

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued its extended weather forecasts and its outlook for August calls for above-normal temps across the Central and Southern Plains westward. Meanwhile, equal chances of normal, below- and above-normal temps are expected across the Northern Plains and Midwest. Its precip forecast is similar for the Midwest, calling for equal chances, while above-normal precip is expected in the Southeast. The extended weather outlook is fairly close to the outlook for August, calling for heat to continue across the western states the remainder of the growing season.



The 90-day outlooks:



Because of persistent drought across the Plains westward, the Sesaonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to linger across the region. Additionally, it says areas that need to be closely monitored for drought development include Iowa, Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwestern Louisiana, as moisture deficits have developed in those areas.

season drought0713

"Exceptional drought (D4) covers substantial portions of the central and southern High Plains, where only 35% to 65% of normal precipitation fell from October 2010 through June 2013, with isolated spots reporting less than that. The scattered areas of drought that had affected parts of the East have been removed over the last four weeks, but the steady pattern of slow improvement that had been evident across the eastern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley came to a halt during late spring," states the drought outlook. "Drought has now re-established itself in eastern sections of Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas and the western half of Arkansas. These areas are one to several inches below normal for the past 30 to 45 days."

"In contrast, the last four weeks brought 2 to 6 inches of rain from central Texas westward through large parts of New Mexico, south-central Colorado, and eastern Arizona, partially the result of a fairly robust monsoon so far this season in central and eastern sections of the area typically affected. Farther north, similar totals were observed in scattered sections of the central High Plains and the northern reaches of the High Plains and Great Plains," state the drought outlook. "The Drought Outlook valid through October 2013 calls for improvement or removal of drought across approximately the areas affected by the monsoon, specifically from central Arizona and south-central Utah eastward through most of southern Colorado, New Mexico, and western Texas. Existing drought is forecast to persist or worsen elsewhere in the central and western U.S., with expansion into the areas of the central Rockies, eastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas currently not in drought."


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