The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations says the early outlook for wheat production in 2014 is "favorable" at 704 MMT, which would represent a 1.7% drop from last year's record harvest. But it says it's too early to release a preliminary forecast of global cereal production with too little of the crop planted.
"The decrease (in wheat production in 2014) is expected to be accountable mostly to a reduction in area and yields in Canada, after a record high last year, and in the European CIS states, where yields are expected to return to average after relatively high levels in 2013. The expected reductions would more than offset the few, and less marked, increases that are foreseen this year mainly in the EU and the United States," says FAO.
Link to full crop prospects report.
The FAO raised its 2013 world cereal production forecast to a record 2.515 billion MT, 13 MMT above the February forecast and 9% above the previous year. "The latest upward adjustment reflects primarily a significant revision to the estimates for Australia and also upward revisions to the figures for wheat and coarse grains in China," it notes.
"The expected increase in global cereal production in 2013 has already resulted in more affordable prices, which in turn are boosting utilization and trade in 2013-14, and helping to replenish world stocks," says FAO. "As a result, the cereal stock-to-use ratio is now estimated to be approaching 24 percent in 2014, its highest level since 2002-03."