Finally, It's the Day 'After'

November 4, 2008 06:00 PM

Julianne Johnston Pro Farmer Senior Markets Editor

From Pro Farmer

Updated as of 7:00 a.m. CT

Election "finally" over... It's finally here, the day "after" the longest and most expensive (and mentally draining) presidential election in our country's history. Now it's time to unite and look forward. Here's one interesting piece of what a democratic president-elect means for today. Grain futures typically are down slightly the day after a democratic president is elected into office. Key in that information is "just for today." It will be interesting to see how the equity markets react to the country's choice as the next president.

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Opening calls. These calls originate more than three hours before the open -- use caution, things change:

Corn: Mixed. Futures were narrowly mixed overnight, trading around 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher. Futures closed mostly around a dime higher yesterday, which was near opening levels, but also near session lows. Much of Tuesday's buying interest came on spillover from outside markets, as the dollar was sharply lower and crude oil was sharply higher. December corn needs to climb back to around the $4.50 level to confirm a low has been posted.

Soybeans: 2 to 7 cents lower. Futures were mostly around 3 cents lower overnight on light profit-taking pressure. Futures closed around 20 cents higher yesterday, but that was near opening levels and near session lows. January soybeans gapped above last week's high on the open and left a 2- cent gap on the daily chart. Key near-term resistance starts at today's high of $9.63 and extends to the top of the Oct. 6 gap at $10.06. Filling that gap would indicate an extended price recovery is underway, especially if the 40-day Moving Average, which should be around $10.23 Wednesday, is violated.

Wheat: Mixed. Futures were mixed overnight, trading around 1 cents higher to 3 cents lower. Futures came well off session highs into the close yesterday, finishing around a dime higher. December Chicago wheat futures are nearing key near-term resistance at the Oct. 14 high of $5.98 and the top of the Oct. 10 gap at $6.01. The 40- day Moving Average, which will be around $6.24 Wednesday, must also be cleared to extend the price recovery.

Cash cattle expectations: $1 higher. Boxed beef prices firmed 93 cents to $1.97 Tuesday on movement of 266 loads. With the beef market showing strength, expectations for higher cash cattle prices compared to last week's mostly $92 trade are building. Cash sources feel cash cattle trade could start today if packers raise cash bids to at least $93.

Futures call: Higher. Futures are called higher based on spillover from yesterday's gains and cash optimism. February live cattle spent most of yesterday pivoting around resistance at the previous day's high and closed just beneath it. Futures still posted a high-range close. Next resistance lies at the October 7 high of $96.10 and extends to the top of the early October gap area at $97.70. Filling that gap would confirm a near-term low has been posted.

Cash hog expectations: Steady to weaker. The pork cutout value followed up the $1.09 drop Monday with a $3.53 plunge yesterday. With hefty supplies, packers are having to slash pork prices to keep product moving through the pipeline. The sharp decline in price prices will cause packers to actively lower cash hog bids to keep margins from plunging.

Futures call: Mixed. Futures are called to open mixed as spreading continues to be a dominate force in the market. Futures saw some corrective buying interest, but attitudes remain bearish. February lean hog futures inched to a new contract low yesterday.

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