First Thing Today (VIP) -- August 15, 2013

August 15, 2013 01:35 AM


FIRMER TONE OVERNIGHT... As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher, SRW wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher, HRW futures are narrowly mixed and HRS wheat futures are 3 to 4 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is weaker this morning.

INITIAL FSA ACREAGE DATA OUT TODAY... There was some talk the initial certified acreage data for 2013 would be delayed as the reporting date was pushed back due to planting delays. But that data was posted today. Subsequent postings will occur on Sept. 17, Oct. 16, Nov. 13, Dec. 13 and a final report will be posted about Jan. 15, 2014. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will begin to incorporate the FSA certified acreage data into its Crop Production Report in October, but monitors the data on a weekly basis.

DEMAND FOR STATE-OWNED CHINESE SOYBEANS IMPROVES... China sold 198,976 MT of state-owned soybeans out of 501,199 MT offered for sale at this week's auction of 2009- and 2010-crop soybeans. That's more than double the amount sold in the initial auction last week, but still only 39.7% of the soybeans put up for sale. The average sale price of 3,909 yuan (around $639) per ton was slightly higher than last week.

PRIVATE FIRM RAISES EU WHEAT FORECAST, CUTS CORN PEG... Strategie Grains raised its EU wheat crop forecast to 134.2 MMT, up 800,000 MT from last month and 7% above year-ago, amid generally favorable harvest conditions across the region. The firm cut its EU corn crop estimate by 200,000 MT from last month to 65.7 MMT.

JULY CRUSH EXPECTED TO DROP FROM MONTH- AND YEAR-AGO... NOPA is expected to show July soybean crush totaled 116.4 million bu., based on the average pre-report guess. That would be down 2.2% from June, 15.3% under year-ago and the smallest July crush total since 2004, if realized. Soyoil stocks are guessed at 2.193 billion pounds.

WEEKLY EXPORT SALES OUT THIS MORNING... For the week ended Aug. 8, traders expect: corn sales between 300,000 and 600,000 MT; wheat sales between 600,000 and 800,000 MT; soybean sales between 600,000 and 1.1 million MT; soymeal sales between 100,000 and 225,000 MT; and soyoil sales between 0 and 15,000 MT.

SOME FORMER USDA OFFICIALS SAY VILSACK IS WRONG ON BRAZIL ACCORD... USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack recently noted in Brazil that a failure to complete a new farm bill would mean the end to payments to Brazil following a WTO-losing case against U.S. cotton subsidies. But some former USDA officials we have talked with say Vilsack can tap the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) for such payments. Another former USDA official noted that the current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Brazil says the interim agreement remains in place as long as both sides fulfill the terms of the MOU. In the case of Brazil, the country would avoid WTO-authorized retaliation until a new U.S. farm bill is in place and fulfills the terms of the WTO ruling. As for the U.S., the monthly payments to Brazil must continue.

SLOW CASH CATTLE NEGOTIATIONS... Bids and asking prices are still $4 to $5 apart in the Plains, suggesting active cash cattle trade isn't likely until Friday. With showlist supplies down sharply from week-ago, especially in Nebraska, traders are anticipating cash prices will rise at least $1 from last week's mostly $121 trade in Texas and Kansas.

PORK MOVEMENT SURGES... The pork cutout value was 54 cents lower yesterday as all cuts except ribs and hams declined sharply. The price drop attracted strong movement of 482.4 loads, however, signaling there's still good retailer demand, especially on price dips. While packer margins are tightening, packers are expected to keep cash hog bids steady to firmer across the Midwest.

OVERNIGHT DEMAND NEWS... Taiwan purchased 29,000 MT of U.S. corn and 5,000 MT of U.S. soybeans. Taiwan also bought 101,500 MT of U.S. wheat. Jordan tendered to purchase 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat.


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