First Thing Today (VIP) -- August 27, 2012

August 27, 2012 01:36 AM


NEW HIGH IN BEANS OVERNIGHT... Soybean futures posted contract highs overnight on support from crop concerns as conditions are forecast to be hot and dry this week. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, soybean futures are trading 14 to 17 cents higher, corn 1 to 3 cents higher, Chicago wheat narrowly mixed, Kansas City wheat steady to 1 cent higher and Minneapolis wheat 2 to 5 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is holding near unchanged in two-sided trade.

ON TAP THIS WEEK... A weather-delayed Republican convention in Tampa, Florida, key remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and potential policy developments dealing with volatile commodity markets highlight the week ahead. With Congress on recess until Sept. 10, attention will be focused on the GOP convention in Florida where Mitt Romney is expected to get the party’s nod for president. But it will come later than planned as GOP convention officials have canceled today's activities because Tropical Storm Isaac is brewing in the Atlantic and while it appears to have skirted a direct hit on the Sunshine State, it is still aiming for New Orleans, Louisiana, on Wednesday in what would be the seventh anniversary of Katrina. Of note, today's Federal Register will include an official call by EPA for a 30-day comment period relative to requests to waive the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS).

REPORT: IEA TO RELEASE OIL RESERVES AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER... The International Energy Agency (IEA) likely will call on countries to release oil reserves to combat rising prices and maintain the integrity of Iranian sanctions, according to trade journal Petroleum Economist. An Isaac-fueled rise in energy markets makes this topic even more important.

CHINA AUGUST SOY IMPORT FORECAST REVISED UP... China likely imported 5.3 MMT of soybeans in August based on data compiled by China's ministry of commerce. That would be down from imports of 5.87 MMT in July, but higher than the 4.37 MMT previously forecast by the ministry.

INDIA TO RELEASE MORE WHEAT STOCKS... India plans to release another 170,000 MT of government wheat stocks into the open market in an attempt to ease domestic prices, according to government sources. India will reportedly release 100,000 MT of stocks in September and another 70,000 MT in October.

FOCUS ON BOXED BEEF TRADE... Boxed beef prices dropped sharply Friday and movement slowed late last week, suggesting the boxed beef market has likely put in a short-term top. With Labor Day buying fully complete, cattle traders will pay extra attention to the boxed beef market this week. If there are signs of a short-term top in the product market, odds of steady to firmer cash cattle trade would be reduced.

CASH HOGS CALLED STEADY/LOWER... Packers are working with profitable margins, but there's little incentive to increase cash hog bids as market-ready supplies are plentiful and kill schedules will be reduced around the Labor Day weekend. As a result, cash hog bids are expected to be steady to $1 lower across the Corn Belt to start the week.

WEEKEND DEMAND NEWS... Egypt purchased 120,000 MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian wheat.


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